im waiting

I'm in no rush to sell my HDR. As I see it, based on the way they have stitched up the agreement with Hardman, Tullow is extremely paranoid that someone will come in over the top of them.

The Hardman board is clearly spooked by the string of dry holes in Mauritania and the lack of progress with Guyanne, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were concerned about a backlash from the investors in the capital raising, who could justifiably claim to have been deceived over the status of Chinguetti. If the Tullow offer had not come through and the share price had continued to sink after poor results at Flamant, Simon and the board could possibly have found themselves fighting a court action.

So Tullow has got the timing perfect, oil price drop, a weak shareprice, a sh1tscared board and a market impatient for some price recovery. Trouble is, the assets are worth more and Tullow know it. There is enough time before the December meeting for other parties to get their acts together, and if the oil price rebounds and/or Kingfisher comes in, Hardman is going to look attractive to more than one of the majors.

The chance of Tullow withdrawing or lowering their offer is negligible, the possibility of another bidder quite reasonable. Sounds like a free put option to me.