The most important factor in whether to sell or hold at the moment is the outcome of Kingfisher. It is due to reach TD in about 35 days time. If it strikes oil it will dramatically raise the value of Hardmans Ugandan assets, making it very attractive to another suitor. It will however also raise the value of Tullow substantially, putting them in a better position to afford to pay a higher price for Hardman.
My guess is that the final purchaser will be Tullow, but if Kingfisher comes in, the bid might have to go up 30-50 cents.
Alternatively, can Tullow convince Heritage to slow down the drill bit so that Kingfisher results are not known until after mid-December? Kingfisher has taken so long to get going another month on the drill would not surprise anyone. A delay on Kingfisher could save Tullow a lot of money, I wonder how much pull they have with Heritage.
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