iM3NY Valuation, page-29

Thank you Sunlover, Mucha123 and Fumoyoda for your perspectives. What is useful is how all are looking at possible valuation through different lenses (which is what the listing broker will also be seeking to do when setting pricing for the iM#NY float).

I thought it worthwhile summarising the various thoughts - and interestingly, whilst Sunlover and Mucha123 have tackled this quite differently to how I approached it, there is some level of consensus developing.

Valuation in a $ per GWh basis: Sunlover used comps to a range of existing battery manufacturers and settled on $1bn per GWh as an average. The conclusion was that a 1.8GWh factory would then equate to US$1.8b for iM3NY which equates to $1.68 per MNS share.

Valuation on a comparison to CATL basis: Mucha123 also looked at this on a value per GWh basis but with specific comparison to CATL and concluded that based on CATL's 2021 production target, its market cap is AU$1.1b per GWh. This translated to an estimated $1.53 per MNS share.

Valuation on a projected EBITDA basis: I looked specifically at (the soon to be listed) LG Energy Solutions plus SK Innovation and determined that the value range on an EBITDA basis was between 30x and 45x (no consensus yet on what the listing value for LG will be).
At 1.8GWh and assuming that iM3NY forecasts it will achieve similar EBITDA margins provides a range of between $0.90 and $1.35 per MNS share with my opinion being it likely tip to the higher end ($1.35) given the enormous future growth.

So that is given us a range so far (from three different perspectives) of between $1.35 and 1.68 per MNS share.

A special mention to Fumoyoda who has suggested the relative value for MNS in the listing of iM3NY could go as high as $4.60 if you base it off the valuation of Quantumscape. That level of pricing (or miss-pricing) is indeed possible - the US market last year priced the NASDAQ listed greenhouse tomato producer, Appharvest, at over $3.5bn for many months after its SPAC listing before finally settling down this year to a $1.2bn valuation. It was all about "growth" with only one facility operational at listing.

Thanks to all for your contributions to date - this level of dialogue and sharing of viewpoints to learn from others is what HC is all about.