and that's if mns do nothing. other that sit and be a...

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stringfellow

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08/08/21

12:20

Post #: 55118900
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Originally posted by jdpc35: ↑

I thought I would open a new thread to allow the collation of view and information on the potential valuation of iM3NY on listing, as this will be a key driver of the MNS share price in the near term.

To start the thread, this is my research so far on a prospective valuation.
iM3NY will start with 1.8GWh of capacity and at its current site, could quickly expand to 5GWh - so for a near term valuation, I will focus on the 1.8gWh and 5GWh levels of production as being the value drivers.
Currently, my research suggests that battery manufacturers (LG Energy Solutions & SK innovation) are achieving about US$115/kWh - so giving us an initial annual revenue target of US$207m, rising to US$575m at 5GWh of production and an ultimate target of US$3.68bn at 32GWh.
On the profitability front, these same manufacturers seem to be achieving EBITDA margins of about 15% - so giving Im3NY an initial EBITDA target of US$31m, rising to US$86m at 5GWh if it can deliver the same levels of profitability (this is the "big if").
LG Energy Solutions is preparing for an IPO (spin-out from LG Chem) later this year - valuation estimations are quite varied, but seem to be discussed at levels between 30x and 45x current EBITDA (noting that LG Energy Solutions also has large growth planned in a similar vein to iM3NY).
At 30x EBITDA, iM3NY potentially has an initial value of US$930m - at 45x EBITDA, this rises to US$1,395m
At 30x EBITDA, iM3NY at 5GWh has a prospective future value of almost $2.6bn, rising to $US$3.9bn at 45x EBITDA
So, what does this all mean for MNS with its 63% stake in iM3NY and assuming a 0.75 AUD/USD currency rate? At a listing where the market places a 45x prospective EBITDA multiple for iM3NY on a 1.8GWh facility, this translates to $1,175m of value for MNS or $1.35/share. If the market prices in the growth to 5GWh (and the prospectus may well be framed with that as a near term target) we could see a iM3NY valuation that translates to anywhere between $2.50 and $3.75 per MNS share.

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and that's if mns do nothing. other that sit and be a shareholder. no tvl. no nachu. no India or Saudi from c4v. ssb to make inroads in 2024ish.
MNS Price at posting: 41.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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