I would like to put before you all some facts we know about...

I would like to put before you all some facts we know about HSV-2 and then ask for a forecast share price response to the possibilities in the upcoming unblinded results.

Aside from what we know about this clinical trial, we know that those with the placebo are people recently infected with HSV-2 …. This is important because in the first year or so the body builds resistance and the sores and probably viral shedding is much reduced.
I would suggest that in the first 6 months the outbreaks are in sequence with maybe only a couple of weeks between the sores appearing, and it takes approx. 2 or 3 weeks for the episode to go through a healing cycle, making (say) 5-6 weeks for a complete cycle of outbreak /sores/healing/quiet time..
At the end of 12 months it is the same 3 weeks healing cycle but the time between outbreaks might have lengthened to 6-8 weeks … so the complete cycle is now (maybe) 10-12 weeks.
So the vaccine will be competing as if in a race against the body’s natural response in the placebo cohort.
So drawing conclusions from the results will not be a simple matter. It would help if the good Professor would assist in interpretation.
BUT
Let’s just say the results are very good … the patient still has the residue of virus hidden within, even though if it comes out of hiding it gets whacked quickly ... reduction to zero over long term.
What would be really good is a magic bullet to stimulate the hidden virus to activate so that all virus particles can be removed from a patient’s body.
BUT
Back to the main question, what happens then .. after release of results?
What forecast for the share price?
I would appreciate a sensible forecast so that when the results come out we investors are acting in a rational way.