imf bullish on commodities

The IMF is bullish on commodities citing a super-commodity cycle as a long term
phenomenon.

Please see Kitco's brief article below.


Market Nuggets: IMF Paper Says Current Commodity Bull Market Not Over; Supportive For Gold –HSBC
Thursday April 11, 2013 4:00 PM
Research by the International Monetary Fund regarding commodity super-cycles suggests that the commodity bull market that started in 2001 is not over, which is positive news for gold prices, says Jim Steel of HSBC. The IMF research paper reviewed commodity super-cycles from the mid-19th century and said super-cycles differ from short-term price changes in three key ways. One, super-cycles are demand-driven and follow global GDP; second, they span a long time, with upswings over 10-35 years and with entire cycles taking 20-70 years to complete; third, they occur over a broad range of commodities, but are usually a function of inputs for industrial production and urban development. Steel says gold is positively correlated with commodities during these super-cycles when bullion could float freely. “According to the study the current commodity cycle shows no sign of exhaustion. This reaffirms our view that while gold prices have eased, they are likely to be supported in part by commodity prices. According to the paper the most recent boom in global economic growth dating from 2001 is unprecedented. Economic growth is also the single most important driver of commodity prices according to the IMF presentation. HSBC macroeconomic forecasts look for strong growth for China and much of the emerging world,” Steel says.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News [email protected]

This helps to dispel some of the media bearish clatter on gold which lead by short term TA and merchant banks such as Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs who have serious skin in the shorting game. Nowadays, when the media are
bearish on something ( like the taxi driver) it is time to buy.

If you remember, last year the media and taxi drivers ( no disrespect intended
to taxi drivers; they provide an essential transport service) were spruiking gold after Sept 2011 peak.

Unlike merchant bankers. the IMF are at arms length and a more credible source.

This should help the long term prospects of producers like RRL.

Cheers
Moorookamick