Yeah it's pretty compelling...Even if you go conservative on all...

Yeah it's pretty compelling...

Even if you go conservative on all key metrics

1) Uptake numbers
2) Royalty
3) Price you charge for drug
4) Insurance cover
5) Region
6) Only use OA, attribute nothing for MPS and any other inflammatory indication or off labelling.
7) Retreatment Factor (recurring revenue)



1) We know there are officially 32 million in the USA that have OA (higher if you don't include Doc diagnosed)
2) Go 12%, why use 20%
3) Forget inflation , use $2500, it's USD, I don't even bother converting to AUD.
4) They will cover most of it, they want to save the huge Op fees. Lets just say they only cover 70% of it.
5) I'm only factoring in USA and maybe some of China, anything else is purely bonus, let them do those deals later on for higher metrics. Every month after the P3 starts, adds deal value, every month.



Do all the above with a conservative PE ratio of just 20, heck, use 15.