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"there’s also less of a chance that this offer by Merck was for...

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oldbull26

7,869 Posts.

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04/06/24

07:48

Post #: 74147623
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Originally posted by ajk92: ↑

fair call mate but I look at it this way:

- Raising $100M when having $95M cash in the bank with trial data looming. Clearly they had enough cash to get through to the data readout.
- Why raise before a data readout if you thought the data would be positive? It’s an open label trial, they know how patients have been responding. Why not wait until the data comes out and raise at a much higher price for a lot less dilution? There’s no way you’d be willing to do a favour to new holders by getting them in “cheap” instead of looking after current shareholders
- there’s also less of a chance that this offer by Merck was for a limited time - this deal could’ve been struck well after the trial readout that’s pending
- the share price has effectively not moved in years but the market cap has been getting higher and higher with little capital gains. For example I invested in 2018-19 and my average price is 38c and what are they raising at? 38c
- Any “positive” news will now result in less of a share price rise than it would’ve before this news as a company’s market cap is the key valuation metric.
- the company also burnt a lot of time and money with this head and neck trial by not blinding it. Why would you take years on a trial with zero chance of using the data for approval simply due to the fact it’s not calibrated correctly to result in approval? You blind this trial and if it is positive you have enough to lodge for approval. But you don’t, you will need to do another long trial that’ll take years to get approval in this indication.

I’ve been very bullish on IMM for years but that ends now mate, they’ve had their chance. I’m honest enough with myself that I was wrong with my investment, and generally a lot of people on these forums won’t admit they are wrong, and will instead look for every single reason to be positive to the point it’s not even logical. It’s confirmation bias 101.

it’s a business where emotions need to be removed, but people fail to do that.

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"there’s also less of a chance that this offer by Merck was for a limited time - this deal could’ve been struck well after the trial readout that’s pending"

Keytruda patents expire in 2028, so Merck needed to get this 750 patient trial happening now in order to get FDA approval for the combo before the patent runs out. trial to run 2025-26 and then 2027 for FDA approval and manufacturing ramp up. USA may block the use of Chinese labs.

IMM Price at posting: 45.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 42.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $598.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
41.5¢	42.5¢	41.0¢	$1.132M	2.721M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	15565	41.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
42.5¢	246989	7

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	15565	0.415
4	230569	0.410
4	34436	0.405
7	45918	0.400
5	169711	0.395

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.425	246989	7
0.430	110012	6
0.435	60064	4
0.440	57636	5
0.445	27000	3

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