Guys - until WEST LB ( German bank) are sorted out at $186m -...

Guys - until WEST LB ( German bank) are sorted out at $186m - the risk is still inherent in the SP.

In my post earlier this am (potential reasons for greenmail) West LB have LOST money themselves - see link in my post for details. This is a classic case of "Green"mail - pay me the money or you are screwed.....and usually from a smaller player.

West LB have their own credit issues - and the tail WILL wag the dog until it is sorted out.

The BIG question is who will pay them out ? If the debts have already been categorised the debts as "doubtful" - it would be a board decision within the banks -and given they are going through results presentations at the moment - are they really going to rock the boat RIGHT NOW. So who will take out WEST LB ?

At this stage it is not clear whether they are secured or unsecured - I can't seem to find out the info - but the Credit crunch will require a bank to step up to the plate for the $$. In my view given most banks are even considering re-capitalising - just look at RBS in the UK - it will be a second tier lender that MIGHT consider the deal - but at VERY expensive rates - 4-5% over BBSR - almost mezzanine rates - but this WILL take time....and anyone in finance /instos know that - so why would you seriously invest big $/Superannuation $ in something that is NOT complete - that is not DE-risked.

I am not seeking to downramp - as I still have a parcel I have kept but the SP will bob around 40 - 45 c until this is sorted - and the cappers will love it.

Happy to take constructive critique.

PT