Impending Property Bubble - Boom for IAM?

Howdy partners,

With everything running along BAU while we patiently (lol) wait for announcements, I thought it may be time to address somewhat of an elephant in the room.

The success of our business depends solely on these contracts with what the market has deemed to be the big banks.
Outsourcing services to these behemoths should save them tens of millions of dollars that will do nothing but increase NPAT figures and hence dividends in order to drive their own share price upwards.
Well done banks.

Let's spitball for a second though.


Throughout history, the phenomenon of housing bubbles have proven time and again that highly leveraged economies come crashing down.
It's not tough to see. However, it's particularly difficult to predict when it will occur.

If we theorise that the value of the banks mortgage book is ~60% of their total value (assorted statistics stating this) and the value of mortgages drops 50% Australia-wide in a crash (as well as business bankruptcies etc.), I think we can look at wiping much of the revenue base of the banks out.

Let's face it, the share prices of these guys are going to completely tank in such a situation meaning a lot of Australians holding their stocks will be mildly peeved.
This can take a lot of time to bring business back to levels of what it would be pre-crash.

And so, what I'm asking is this: Would IAM's product be more desirable in such a world or would it be less desirable.

Many different points to many different arguments to cover here:

- Australian unemployment will be higher in times of a crash. Big banks offering jobs offshore is not the right thing to be seen to be doing.

- The Banks profit will be kaput. Who wants to invest in a company that just lost them their house. The banks need to cut costs any way they possibly can to bring back dividends to investors. IAM's solution is perfect.

- Are the wealth departments in trouble if something like this happens? I would assume this is exactly when you need your advisor more than ever. More business means they need more processing facilities (Well played Phillipines)

- The banks go back into their shells and cut any sort of spending whatsoever. Because they are banks and the RBA will bail them out. This could put the project on the shelf.

Anyway, my few musings from a couple of weeks of delving into possible future situations.
I'm still overly bullish here but find it useful to discuss my train of thought with the wider community.

Cheers.