We are all missing another scenario, the "ox is slow but the earth is patient" cliched scenario. The one where a giant takes over STO but does not do anything with ESG and just leaves it there on 19.9% and then creeps. 6% a year over 4-5 years and they have majority. It will take 4-5 years for the "LNG out of Newcastle" story to unfold.
Under that scenario, ESG price will be dampened and HGO will be even worst. A big ox predator can wait.