Nothing you said was exactly wrong. It perhaps is more a question of interpretation.
If people believe STO is a few % short, through the creep provisions, of have '50%', they may believe that the race has been run and won for ESG. No possibility of a takeover, hence no takeover premium. They may believe STO can be the only buyer... No under-bidder = lower price.
Personally, I think the gloss has come off ESG somewhat because many believe the STO stakes is a strong strategic stake, and they think the game is not as open for a bidding war as it was prior to STO coming on board. There is some credence to this view.
The OTHER view is that one party, STO, has already shown that they value ESG's assets. And IF another party should be interested in the assets, a bidding war is still very possible.
I don;t think anyone knows exactly how the endgame for ESG will play out as yet. But it will be interesting.
Y
ESG Price at posting:
$1.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held