Implications of AEMO's 2021 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), page-2

Thanks Gozza - all does augur well for the battery (and pumped hydro, but someone else gets the profits from that).

A few notes on Jemalong that might be helpful in contextualising the extent of risk:
1) Based on the FY21 results live presentation, they borrowed $72m @3.5%. Over 30 years, you need $4m repaid each year to knock this off. This translates to a price of $40/MWh, with 100 GWh production (capacity is reported as 128 GWh)
2) The annual operating costs of Jemalong are unclear. At 100 GWh/year each $100K in operating costs requires $1/MWh
3) During the live presentation, Ben Guo reported that current NSW PPAs are $55-60 bundled.
4) For solar hours of operation in NSW, I estimate that Jemalong received a very nice $135-140 bundled during July (for ~5.4 GWh), and will receive ~$75/MWh bundled during August (for ~6.5 GWh)
5) Note that Jemalong production is much more seasonal than Kidston: roughly two-thirds of production will be in Q2 and Q3 each year. Critical will be the actual prices in the NEM in those quarters, and the number of slots of negative pricing, where production will go offline.