Growth in consumption is assumed to come from macroeconomic...

Growth in consumption is assumed to come from macroeconomic drivers (population and economic growth), as well as electrification of heating and transport. In my opinion, the electric vehicle forecasts used by AEMO (produced by CSIRO) are very conservative. Their central EV uptake trajectory sees less than 20% of vehicles sold in 2030 being electric. In my opinion, given where EV policy has moved in the last 12 months, as well as how quickly industry giants such as VW group, Ford, Mercedes are starting to produce EV models, this is exceptionally bearish.

The following charts show electric vehicle sales and penetration forecasts from CSIRO. The 'current trajectory' and 'Net Zero' scenarios are the most relevant to the ESOO 2021 projections.

Projected sales share, all electric vehiclesLess than 20% of vehicles sold in 2030 under both scenarios. For reference, the UK has legislated that allnew car sales be electric vehicles (or other non-fossil fuel powered) by 2035 - which is equivalent to the most extreme scenario modelled by CSIRO.

I believe that Australia will eventually no longer have much choice in the matter being such a small market, and we will be forced to buy the types of vehicles produced by our favourite manufacturers. A number of manufacturers have committed to stop production of fossil-only cars as early as the 2020s.

Projected fleet share, all electric vehicles

Because we tend to hold onto our vehicles for a long time in Australia (17-20 years), the new sales take quite some time to trickle down to fleet share. Under the central scenarios, this is less than 10% by 2030, and still sees fossil fuel cars driving around in most scenarios all the way out until 2050.


Source: https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/inputs-assumptions-methodologies/2021/csiro-ev-forecast-report.pdf