@hagetaka wrote: Yeah, thats three years away and extra tonnes...

@hagetaka wrote: Yeah, thats three years away and extra tonnes brings the valuation back closer to what should be in line with the market, but, still over what it should be... in that three years I expect WHC, HCC, BTU, YAL to go up significantly... while NHC will go sideways... the auto buy bots are providing exit liquidity... until they get told that NHC isn't really worth a floor at $4.50 but $3.50... they're always slow to react, thats how dudes like us can play the arbs. My calcs at 13mtpa gives me a valuation closer to $3.50... and if the execution risk from 9.0->13.0mtpa turns nasty, then I get $2.50... but that isn't going to occur in my humble opinion, so, three handle it is.

Ok a couple of points here:

• why are giving NHC 13.0mpta in FY27 I have between 16.1-17.1 (according to the plan) 13.4 is just bengalla ROM?
• why do you think NHC will trade sideways while WHC is going up. NHC will have more tonnes each quarter, WHC will have less debt risk (i would think both will go up)
• how do you get $3.5. If you are willing to share how exactly are you valuing NHC. it seems like you are saying All thermal coal mines should be EV/EBITDA of 3 and backward solving the price to there? In this case its all based on the coal price now and what the company is mining now. you are basing everything on $110USD for thermal. Is this your long term average forecast?