Heya Hagetaka, as you know NHC has held up due to management and the longer term outlook of 5 mil tonnes from Acland, Bengala growth, Maxwell etc. but in the short term sure it will trade down.
Comments on spreadsheet:
Can I ask why you are using $110US it was $180AUD/tonne from last quarterly and current NCF1! is 122US?
The top end of their cost is $81AUD no?
I have their margin at the moment at $80AUD per tonne.
Think your royalty is off? shouldn't it be 9.8% for this year and 10.8% for next? (ie up from $9 even if you are using that realised price)
Regarding capex number you have. Ive been looking at this recently. I think they have maintenance cap ex built into their cost per tonne. though not 100%
Implosion, page-7
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