What is baked into the price already in recent media flow?
Fears
Gecamines / Nationalization
Elections
Child labour and ethical car batteries supply chains
War
Battery chemistry reducing cobalt content
NZC finance
Taxes
Upside
Gecamines - NZC no Gecamines. Gecamines really want Nationalization or a bigger share of the pie of their projects?
Nationalization - Do they really want to run mines - they don't have the skills - they just want easy money and a greater share of profits as the country is broke - fair enough. As for Nationalization - if it happens then forget the Global cobalt boom and e-revolution as simply not enough supply and back we go to oil.
Elections - A geniune concern I agree but already baked into the share price? Upside is Kabilla pre-negotiates himself a golden handshake similar to Zimbabwe and we actually get a peaceful handover.
Child labour and ethical car batteries supply chains - NZC child labour free = ethical cobalt.
War- ongoing scuffles are tribal conflicts and will continue as long as Gov has minimal reach on the far Eastern boundaries of the DRC - these conflicts are generally contained and are nowhere near the copper belt.
Battery chemistry reducing cobalt content -
http://benchmarkminerals.com/panasonic-reduces-teslas-cobalt-consumption-by-60-in-6-years/
NZC finance - Some see this as a risk. But its a small amount of funding to secure and I believe management are more likely sourcing the best deal and partnerships as opposed to scrounging for finance. Thinking offtake partners here.
Taxes - Should be cooked into the price now. Assuming no more downside changes then the taxes come into line and in some cases still less than many other countries including Australian and Canada (higher). As for CLA - good luck to them we wish them well - promising large scale project albeit much lower grades. How many have factored in the 45% tax rate there and duties?
All projects have their risks. DRC projects have more inbuilt risk. The failure so far of this shorter shows us the register of NZC is very tight and is made of investors familiar with both the risks and upsides.
