I know this sounds really basic (almost common sense) but I have just spent the last 3 or so hours analysing whether there is a correlation between unemployment and market indexes 1940-current.
Answer: Yes.. with 90% probability:
As Unemployment incrementally rises >6% DJI falls or trends sideways.
As Unemployment falls or is <6% the Dow Index rises.
DJI to AORDS has strong correlation.
Conclusion: We know US is going into recession leading to an increase in unemployment therefore there is no point being in DJI or AORDS Index based funds.
Specific shares on AORDS will rise and fall day to day but will tend to travel in a band until such time as unemployment falls in US.
