thanks for your homework. quantitative work like yours is most believable when it backs up something that intuitively seems the case. i don't think you will find anybody who will tell you what you said is bulldust.
it is the timing that is of interest to me- markets are meant to lead the real economy (eg unemployment) by a certain amount of time. you wouldn't by any chance have quantified that gap? not sticking it to you, i'm keen for you to post something, your dataset looks about as robust a longitudinal as could be applicable
thanks for the 6% unemployment figure. sounds like a good market-based surrogate for NAIRU.
