Fire, I hear you.
Perhaps I wasn't clear enough in my previous post. My view is that Cephalon may be satisfied with 50%, in the short term, BUT ONLY IF in the MEDIUM term they can see 100% on the horizon. If they get to a point where there is no large single blocking stake but they can't get the remaing retail shareholders across the line then their Plan B will be banking on the slow grind of low liquidity and Cephalon control to get them across the line with a second bite of the cherry. Plan A is still getting to 90% this time around.
Cephalon would be gun shy post-Sirtex - I think that stating they wanted 90% (ie 100%) would be a bridge too far. But make no mistake ... they want 100%. Going the 50% offer at $1.40 was a best case scenario for Cephalon but they would have kept their powder dry and are just softening up the remaining shareholders for a improved offer, perhaps around $1.65. If they had made an original bid at say $1.65 for 90% I think they would have struggled .... this way they are far more likely to get to 90% at a cheaper price.
Plan A is still the overwhelmingly attractive outcome for Cephalon. There is absolutely no way known to man that it makes sense for an organisation like Cephalon to be a long term majority owner of a company like Arana and not seek to privatise it.
If Cephalon can privatise Arana then this takeover is almost zero risk for them (not that it isn't close to that anyway), even at close to $2.00. Arana has enough shots on goal [between any one of its product pipeline (ART621 being the most advanced), its potential royalties from the application/licencing of the EGX technologies (to GSK, CSL, Aveo), and the value of its remaining slots with Domantis (particularly if Domain antibodies show some novel differences in future trials)] to easily cover the enterprise value of Arana (net cash). If Arana is not private then everything remains locked in the company - no flexibility of being able to strip out the cash, intergrate research capabilities or value-add Arana's technologies to current or future Cephalon products (except on arms length terms).
Speak to any industry pundit .... anything but 100% ownership makes no sense for Cephalon in the MEDIUM term.
AAH
arana therapeutics limited
