Luis. I think that will be their strategy and in most companies...

Luis. I think that will be their strategy and in most companies I would agree with you, however, there is one critical thing that makes Arana a slightly different kettle of fish - the shareholders.

Most of the shareholders are retail shareholders. The big difference being not the level of sophistication but the emotional attachment. The emotional attachment is not to Arana per se (although given the nature of the company there is some of this), nor is it irrational. Rather it comes from the strong personal interest that individuals take with regard to their personal wealth.

The only people saying this is a good deal are Cephalon. Even the "independent" directors have said it is a cheap opportunistic offer (personally I think Robin and Chris are smart blokes who got caught in the perfect storm and agreed to call in search'n'rescue moments before the clouds parted and everyone realised it wasn't that bad after all - see CUV, ACL, BTA in the last few weeks).

If you are a small shareholder (as I am) who thinks that the offer is cheap, then there is part of you that is pissed-off that these monkeys can take advantage of a confluence of circumstances and deny you a fair price.

Life contains no certainties but I can smell a revised offer. Buying by traders has dried up. Cephalon can extend and extend and extend ... and they will get a percentage point here and a percentage point there but they need 20-30% made up of retail shareholders (assuming all the traders sell once close is announced) to change their mind.

If you are a pissed-off small shareholder (as I am) and you haven't sold yet, why would you change you mind just because they extend? Sure, some people's circumstances will change and they will need the money and sell - but this is a trickle (like I said, a percentage point here and a percentage point there).

Also, don't forget that Cephalon can't wait for ever (their advisers cost money and chasing down retail shareholders can be costly) and it would be a huge gamble to close over 50% but less than 90%. If ART621 does show real promise in the current trials then they will end up paying a lot more than they would for a revised bid.

HOLD baby HOlg