Luis - I share your caution. I have approx 70K in AAH. I don't...

Luis - I share your caution. I have approx 70K in AAH.

I don't need to sell right now ($70k is a lot of money to me but it will only sit in the bank). If I did need 100% certainty I would probably sell around 1.37-1.38 on market - there are still buyers (traders/hedge funds) out there ... as far as I can see its the sellers that have dried up.

In my view, the other low risk approach (assuming it is extremely unlikely that Cephalon will pull out entirely), is to wait until Cephalon stop extending then sell into the bid (ie if they miss an extension deadline my understanding is that I would have a few days to sell into the bid before it closes).

In the interim there is more than a reasonable chance of a revised offer.

I you have appetite for some risk (which I do) then just keep holding. Even if they close the bid and the price drops or is very volatile, Cephalon's bid has SIGNIFICANTLY derisked ART621. The drug itself appears very safe and, from all pre-clinical reports, at least equivalent to existing anti-TNF's. In my view, the biggest risk for Arana was getting a partner on the right terms (as Arana was never going to take ART621 to market alone). Cephalon have effectively filled that breach. Cephalon will give ART621 every possible chance of success as there is a LOT of upside for an organisation like Cephalon, whereas a large pharma might focus their energies less on a 'me-too'.