It all depends on the reported delta in BCVA.Let’s say one trial...

It all depends on the reported delta in BCVA.

Let’s say one trial shows a statistically significant superiority of 3 letters over sham and the other trial falls short and misses statistical significance with a 1 letter superiority only, then I would agree with you. Even after approval, the stock probably would never make it back to AUD2.40 ever again with peak sales limited to a low hundred US$ MN number at best.

Yet, assuming an absolute blue sky outcome with both drug arms showing a 6 letters superiority each, then peak sales could be set somewhere around US$5 BN. The stock would become a ten bagger within 72 hours, just to continue rising thereafter. And dilution would be nothing anybody would ever speak of again.

The next few months, 2Q CY 2024 in particular will be crucial when it comes to refinancing. A dilution of 33% is what I am ready to accept and even consider a success if - and only if! - this deal secures financing through 3Q CY2025.

How do I come to 33%?

In case of partnering, I think OPT will always keep 100% of USA, CAN, AUS and NZL which should be some 50% of peak sales. Partnering ROW for US$200 MN upfront (to meet the short term financing needs) and a 20% royalty would give away 2/3 of ROW value if I assume a 60% operating margin. Put together, OPT would give away 1/3 of OPT-302‘s value.

Doing it on its own instead, that‘s without a partner, OPT could issue up to 330 MN new shares to limit the dilution to 33%. In order to generate USD200 MN, OPT would have to do such a raise at roughly AUD1.00.

That‘s how I come to my numbers.