Thanks for the GA's on my last post. Due to this feedback, I am happy to take that analysis one step further to look at Gross Profit trends. I have found that it is far more profitable as an investor to try to estimate some key financial metrics before the next financial report. It is mostly too late to take advantage once the company financial report is released.
In just the last 6 months, the Camplify platform added 2567 new vehicles to reach 12493 total vehicles. That does not include any of the Paul Camper vehicles. Based on the metrics in my last post, these new vehicles should add around 2567 x $925 = $2.37M of additional revenue in the next 6 months, or around 2567 x $537 = $1.38M of additional Gross Profit in the next 6 months. That compares with a total Gross Profit in 1H FY23 of $7.2M. So this $1.38M additional Gross Profit should increase total Gross Profit in the current half year by 19.2%. Without any further new vehicles or changes in Gross Margin, this converts to an annual increase of 38.4%.
The good news is that this is a gross underestimation of the likely total GP increase. There are several other sources of Gross Profit growth in FY23, including:
- The Paul Camper acquisition. Note that Paul Camper was a similar size of operation to Camplify in terms of vehicle numbers, but it had a lower take rate of 19% in CY2022. There should also be some revenue and cost synergies, and Camplify should be able to improve PC's metrics over time. Paul Camper has a much larger hirer base for Camplify to promote improved services to.
- Growth in Paul Camper's vehicle numbers. I note that PC's organic growth in vehicle numbers was approximately 2400 over 12 months from 2021 to 2022 (based on a very rough read of a graph). That is significant growth of around 23% (although lower than Camplify's recent performance) on the approx 10,400 vehicles on the Paul Camper platform in 2001.
- Improvement in the take rate on all existing vehicles on both platforms as more services such as insurance are added and as the take-up of existing services such as premium membership grows.
- An extra 6 months of growth in Camplify vehicle numbers.
- Other synergies and efficiencies due to the scaling effect of the platform as the business grows vehicles and revenue.
I may not have included all possible sources of Gross Profit increases, and I leave it to investors to make their own estimates of the impact of items 1 to 5 above on total Gross Profit increase.
From the above, I expect to see another very large increase in GP in FY23. I have my own estimate of this increase, but can only share it if Camplify release more data to fine-tune my estimate of items 1 to 5.
If any reader can provide a better estimate on any of this, please provide the relevant data and your reasons. That would really help our discussion and help grow the community following Camplify.
