I certainly agree 100% with everything said by Jim Sinclair.
I believe gold will continue higher simply because the US has to keep devaluing their dollar because they have to keep printing dollars.
When gold hit 1500 and there was a lot of talk about a bubble, I sent the following simple comparison to a few colleagues and friends.
I have compared the rise of the price of gold since around 1980 when it settled down to average $400, to the rise of the value of real estate in Australia.
In 1934 gold was fixed at $35, and in 1971 it was floated.
Once it was free to move it fluctuated violently including a peak around $800, till it settled to average around $400 by 1980.
So it seems the market decided around $400 was the right price in the early 80s.
For 25 years between 1978 and 2003, it averaged around $400, and then dipped to $250, before beginning the large climb to $1500 now in 2011.
Thats a rise of just 3.75 times in 33 years.
Thats not as extreme as the more recent rise from the low point of $250 to $1500 or a factor of 6 over 11 years, but I believe this more recent rapid rise was just a case of catch up from a very oversold low.
As a comparison, median house prices in Melbourne were $44,000 in 1981 and $524,000 in 2010.
Thats a rise of 12 times over the same period that gold has risen by just 3.76 times.
Even if house prices manage to fall 30% to $370,000, thats still up by a factor of 8.4 times and if they fell 50%, they would still be up by 6 times compared to 3.75 times for gold.
Perhaps gold still needs to rise by at least another 100% to catch up further?
That doesnt rule out corrections though. House prices have risen much faster than CPI.
In 1970, only 37% of a persons wage went to the mortgage. Since 2002 its been over 85%.
The recent rapid rise in gold over the last 11 years looks much more like a case up catch up rather than a bubble and I see no reason for it to stop any time soon.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- improving gold
I certainly agree 100% with everything said by Jim Sinclair. I...
Featured News
Add KGL (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
10.0¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $64.81M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 17966 | 9.8¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
10.0¢ | 65123 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 17966 | 0.098 |
1 | 43337 | 0.097 |
1 | 80004 | 0.096 |
1 | 5500 | 0.095 |
2 | 10950 | 0.092 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.100 | 65123 | 2 |
0.105 | 4840 | 2 |
0.110 | 40854 | 2 |
0.115 | 5010 | 1 |
0.120 | 242648 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.12pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
KGL (ASX) Chart |
Day chart unavailable
The Watchlist
SER
STRATEGIC ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED
David DeTata, Managing Director
David DeTata
Managing Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online