so.... since this thread, the alumina price is up from about 280...

so.... since this thread, the alumina price is up from about 280 dmt if i remember correctly, to 465dmt as we speak. thats a difference of ~185 and according to the last presentation.

average realised price for awc @ 290t, at current prices thats an addition to ebitda of over 2B.

price of caustic soda up ulmost 100%, so take out 90m to the 2b, still get about 1.9b, AUD constant, then add in 10% energy price increases at roughtly 20M hit to sensitivity (.26x230x3) and the ebitda still yields more than 1.9B assuming currnet alumina price average at 465 (this may not be sustainable). and add the fact the market is now moving from expected surplus to balanced to potentially a shortage and you have a healthy earnings margin, including a continuation in increase in freight costs which dont seem to be abating at this stage.

these are all bar napkin calculations so take it all with a grain of salt but you can see how the margins increase dramatically with the price of alumina.

also its important to note that these calculations are all in USD. current awc sp at $6.3b aud or about $4.6b usd.

you watch todays pe ratio get adjusted downwards when the next set of earnings come in relative to price. my westpac might show 31.48 pe ratio which is on the growth side of the curve but at this stage it should be closer to 35-40.

from a charting perspective its do or die time this week to cross resistance at 2.19-2.23. we are right at the end of the pendant of a bullish flag so if this goes then it will hit range of 2.32-2.5 in the months ahead. im trying to practice patience and i really wish i could exercise the most now on awc as it vould go to $3 by the next 6 months.

dyor obviously and see these figures for your self. dont listen to unsubstantiated garbage from other posters here or even me. run the numbers your self.

gltah and dyor