Here's some numbers I prepared to give a comparison between potential takeover offers and the corresponding share price:
| Exchange Rate | | Take Over Offer |
| 0.72 | US$ | 1,000,000,000 | 2,000,000,000 | 5,000,000,000 | 10,000,000,000 | 15,000,000,000 | 20,000,000,000 | 25,000,000,000 |
| Shares On Issue* | AU$ | 1,388,888,889 | 2,777,777,778 | 6,944,444,444 | 13,888,888,889 | 20,833,333,333 | 27,777,777,778 | 34,722,222,222 |
| 5436346959 | SP (AUD) | 0.26 | 0.51 | 1.28 | 2.55 | 3.83 | 5.11 | 6.39 |
(SOI fully diluted if all options exercised - I haven't double checked this number but it looks to be in the right ballpark.)
When I first bought in (early 2017), my thoughts were solely on a buy out value for HER-Vaxx alone, around AU$4.5B ~$1.00 per share. The HER2-positive breast cancer market is expected to approach US$10B in 2025, and perhaps double that to include HER2-positive gastric cancers and other HER2-positive cancers which HER-Vaxx likely be able to treat if it works. So, at least US$20B per annum in sales for 10 or so years until the patent runs out. $200B+ of which HER-Vaxx would likely take 90-100% market share as it appears to be side affect free. Maybe AU$4.5 is reasonable, maybe it should be higher or lower.
Since 2017, we've bought new IP and also had dilution. The HER-Vaxx data is apparently looking beautiful, PD1-Vaxx will likely be on the money if the B-Cell platform works (and HER-Vaxx should confirm if it does/does not.) Now, we also have CF33 which has demonstrated massive potential in the lab. "
CF33 showed superior replication and cancer cell killing in NCI-60 cell lines and is more potent than all the parental and competitor viruses in most of the NCI-60 cell lines except for a few cell lines in which none of the viruses showed any effect at the low MOI (0.01)."
All up, there are about to be four drugs in the clinic. Each drug in it's own right could potentially warrant an offer of US$3-5B or more.
However, these drugs (and the B-Cell platform with the drugs that have yet to be replicated) have the potential to be used in combination, so it's reasonable to think that a company would want the lot and would pay a premium to ensure they get them all while also preventing their competitors from getting any.
As a reminder, here's exactly what's in or about to be in the clinic:
I think there is potential for the share price to reach $US1B off the back of positive results for the HER-Vaxx Ph2 and even higher with positive results for the PD1-Vaxx, VAXinia and CHECKvacc Ph1 trials.
So, I'd rule out low ball offers in the US$1-2B range as that's where I think the large funds will likely drive the market cap as they accumulate off the back of positive trial results and in anticipation of a large offer. Based off my initial belief that HER-Vaxx would be around AU$4.5B, the four drugs would have be around AU$18B / US$13B, however that doesn't allow a premium for the B-Cell Platform nor for Vaxinia's potential broad usage.
So, I'll place my guess in the ballpark of a $US15-20 billion take over offer; but that is dependent on four successful Ph2 trials (or maybe it could get there off the back of one successful Ph2 and three successful Ph1 trials which I believe have been designed to gather data in relation to efficacy).
(20min delay)