The week that was
This week realised the return of a bull market on the S&P in the US, another up week for the NASDAQ and even an uptick for the RUSSEL 2000 Index of small cap stocks. Things were on the up, to say the least. Even consumer confidence in the US was at annual highs. The doom and gloom that many had forecast was now a distant memory, and company directors had only themselves to blame for under performance in 2023. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index was up 23.08 percent year on year, a stellar performance to say the least.
Having read the financial news my mind drifted back to IMU. With all the good news surrounding the market and the stock itself, how could things turns around? Clearly things need to change. The goal of every Board of Directors is to create shareholder value, in other words increase the company share price on a daily basis. And in saying that I shall make some constructive comments in this post that in my opinion if followed would do just that, increase the IMU share price. Shareholders want the baby now, it’s long overdue, they’ve endured enough pain. It’s high time the Board showed them the money, or at the very least where it’s going to come from. It’s time management stole the markets thunder, as opposed to their own. Waiting for conferences to come around just doesn’t cut it with an investment community screaming for facts and figures. Imugene’s worth a bomb, now the time to detonate it.
Imugene (IMU - ASX)
I think most sane people on these threads would agree Imugene’s science is game changing. Low levels of toxicity, high safety standards and minimal patient side effects. Longer life expectancy than the standard of care combined with a footprint in the massive solid tumour market. The ability to target cancer cells in combination with a myriad of CarT cell therapies. The question now requires answering, how do we proceed this year toward this threads $2 price target, worthy of this revolutionary science? Clearly much depends on the biopsy results from the current Vaxinia (MAST) Trial, however management must play an active role in promoting their company, if such a target is to be reached. Nothing happens unless you make it happen.
An IMU Investor Forum - a WMHB suggestion
Following on from Fridays Vaxinia announcement now is the ideal time to hear from management. Let’s establish what the game plan is. Perhaps a forum with soon to be international visitors Professor Yuman Fong, Saul Priceman M.D, Dr Jakob DuPont, Monil Shah and even Chairman Paul Hopper, would be a great place to start. Let’s discuss the recent M and A activity in the sector including Mercks acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences for 10.8 billion USD and Pfizer’s 43 billion USD Seagen acquisition. From there we could talk about prospective valuations for Imugene’s immunotherapies and how they compare and contrast with these companies. The panel may like to place an opinion on what they aim to realise from both a commercial and humanitarian perspective. Having stated previously they have amassed sufficient data on many of their platforms from recent “in human” clinical trials, estimated prices for their products and platforms should be front and centre. After all Hopper and the team have long stated their goal is to sell the science, either by way of license, partnership or outright sale, as opposed to take it to market. Therefore they must have some commercial figures in mind. Potential estimated timelines for FDA product approvals of their pipeline could be considered by the panel, together with the likelihood of fast track FDA approvals.
Let’s make the forum 30 or even 40 minutes, as opposed to the usual 4 - 5 minute Proactiv Investor interviews. Whilst at it the panel could review not only the one patient who is still alive after 2 and a half years on Imugene’s PD1 Vaxx, but talk about how the other 11 patients on the trial are fairing, or indeed faired. A further discussion piece could be to outline where the Phase 2 Her Vaxx patients are actually at in June 2023, re life expectancy and OSR results, as this information would no doubt prove worthwhile for all investors in the group. Let’s create an atmosphere of transparency, deliberation and negotiation from which outcomes can be scrutinised by the participants and shareholders alike. Most importantly let’s not miss the opportunity to capitalise on communicating the potential CF33 and Vaxinia have to create value for the stakeholders in IMU. In conclusion the pros and cons of an IMU NASDAQ listing could be presented by Imugene’s business representative Monil Shah. In my mind such a forum would set a road map for the year(s) ahead and catapult Imugene to their preeminent position as a market leader in immunotherapy.
Vaxinia and the IMU share price
Reading and scrolling through posts from investors and non holders on these threads I, not unlike @valueadd, would note many appear unclear as to the huge potential Vaxinia has to propel the IMU share price into the stratosphere. There is no point in comparing Vaxinia, the drug Team Imugene are clearly focused on (i.e as noted in their recent newsletter), to Australia’s recent biotech success stories. Success stories including the CAR T treatment CARVYKTI, which treats multiple myeloma, or Neuren Pharmaceuticals, who treat Rhett’s Syndrome. Investors need to wrap their heads around the fact CF33 and Vaxinia are designed to kill solid tumours within patients. Solid tumours account for 90 percent of all adult cancers. They can appear across a variety of locations within the human body from the breast, lung, prostate, colon, melanoma, bladder and kidney.
Cryosurgery, chemotherapy and radiation are all used to treat cancerous tumours within patients. Though in spite of the side effects they create within their patients, none are responsible for targeting, hunting down and killing only cancer cells, as opposed to the healthy cells in one’s body, as Vaxinia does. Anti Drug Congugates (ADC’s) such as those acquired by Pfizer from Seagen for $43 US Billion dollars use the Monoclonal Antibodies component to selectively deliver a highly potent cytotoxic to cancer cells, while at the same time leaving the surrounding normal tissue unaffected. Yet the ADC is only as effective as the monoclonal antibody being delivered, and more often than not these drugs have side effects. As an example recent clinical tests with ADC’s highlighted the most common therapeutic-related adverse events of any grade were peripheral sensory neuropathy (42%), nausea (35%), fatigue (34%), neutropenia (19%), diarrhea (18%), pyrexia (14%), vomiting (13%), arthralgia (12%), pruritus (12%), myalgia (11%), peripheral motor neuropathy (11%), and alopecia (10%), see www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov for more. The point being that while these treatments have less side effects than chemotherapy, and do aim to target cancer cells only, none have been successful in safely seeking out and destroying hard to locate solid tumours such as those behind ones abdominal cavity, as CF33 and Vaxinia have now been recently shown to do. Put simply, Vaxinia travels from one solid tumour in a patients body to another, infecting and ultimately exploding them as it goes.
The Vaxinia oncolytic virus is potent, safe, ingenious and as we shall soon find out, if initial signs and announcements are anything to go by, effective in killing cancer in humans. Now I ask even the strongest opponent to place their value on this unique and radical treatment approach. I repeat, a treatment with little or no side effects, responsible for killing only our cancerous cells, obliterating only the “up until now” untreatable solid tumours in one’s body, including even the hard to locate solid tumours in patients. Please tell what that is this revolutionary technology worth?
IMU and Stock valuations
Research analysts on average have a current 12 month price target forecast on IMU for approximately 50 cents per share, or close to 5 times the current share price. These reports detail the many risks involved in making an investment into a speculative biotech company such as IMU. Keep in mind many of Imugene’s current clinical trials, including the Vaxinia (MAST) trial are dose escalation trials, with very sick cancer patients. There are clinical risks involved. These trials are designed to ascertain the optimal biological dose rate for a drug, not to produce efficacy. Whilst discounted by many retail investors these research reports are scrutinised closely by fund managers and institutional investors. Financial analysts at master fund and wrap accounts analyse them with a view to making share allocation decisions for their customers. The current IMU research reports do not take into consideration the current Vaxinia cohort results, which are as of yet unknown to the market. In my opinion prospective investors, having calculated their own risk profile, should assess these research reports in doing their own research, and factor in the significant upside positive Vaxinia clinical trial results would have on IMU’s forecast earnings. In doing so they may well ascertain why many including me, are talking dollars as opposed to cents for this cutting edge technology.
DYOR seek investment advice as and when required Opinions only
Ps. Thank you @iluminaughty for your brilliant post. So clever I absolutely loved it. I must admit the foyer reminded me a bit of the hallway around my place in recent months. But as noted before, this too shall pass. I cannot wait to all catch up at the IMU $1 party later this year or early next and put a face to all the names.
(20min delay)