The potential value of Imugene is a perilous exercise. The...

The potential value of Imugene is a perilous exercise.

The current value of 10 cents per share represents a market cap 0f $0.642 Billion AUD
So is the claim of a future market cap of 12.846 Billion based on a $2 sp deemed to be ramping?

To provide some context I propose a basic valuation framework.
A fair assessment of future share price requires assumptions as to market type, market size, market share, trial outcomes and potential competition.

Market type - solid tumors
Market size - $283 Billion USD 2026 and growing
Market Share - 15%
Trial Outcomes - Check-Vacc, Vaxinia, OnCARlytics all safe, efficacious and FDA fast tracked
Potential competition - mRNA vaccines

Potential revenue is $63.358 Billion AUD per annum
Potential market cap based on 5x revenue is $316.791 Billion or $49 per share

Hang on lets wind that market share back to 10% - market cap $211,194 Billion at $33 per share

So yes if the CF33 based products deliver the outcomes seen in pre-clinical trials its hard to make the case that a $2 share price is ramping.

As a counter point to the above valuation let's assume Imugene only had its OnCARlytic drug CF33-CD19.
And that it could only mark cancer cells with CD19 as targets for killing by CAR-T drugs.
I suspect the future share price would still be multiples of a $2 share price.

All good fun.
Just my opinion only
GLTAH