The late Queen Victoria once said "Today we need a certain type of courage. The subtle courage to stand up against the cynics and say to the world we are not afraid of the future". She may well have been speaking to Imugene's cancer patients, or the shareholders of IMU, whom are constantly barraged with condescending, cynical and at times sarcastic responses from those without substance, "who always know better".
The predominant reason for the fall in the IMU share price is a lack of data. Data from PD1 Vaxx, Her Vaxx, Vaxinia, CF33 and Oncarlytics. This put simply is not the fault of management nor the clinical trial administrators and supervisors. Data is coming, but it takes times. For yeah of little faith dragged kicking and screaming into the abyss of disillusionment this June, I would draw your attention to Professor Yuman Fong's words earlier this year wherein he proclaimed "we are seeing unequivocal signs of cancer killing in humans". This renowned surgeon is set to grace our shores once again in less than a month from today. If indeed he was seeing signs of efficacy in Imugene's Vaxinia trial in February and March of this year, one can only imagine what results may come to hand at the now escalated doses in his current oncolytic virus trial.
Nothing has changed on the IMU front, other than an absence of efficacy data in the 12 months past. As this data slowly comes to hand I am confident the share price shall react accordingly, justly rewarding those who stayed the course. This is merely my opinion centred upon research and company conferences, all of which lead me to the conclusion the pipeline is set to shine, in more ways than one. Are there risks, of course there are. Do we know Vaxinia is going to prove successful in treating solid tumours within cancer patients? Of course we don't. We can only make a calculated assessment based on the company announcements and information to hand. But if as suggested the current Vaxinia Trial is effective in the existing cohorts, rest assured a fast track FDA approval is sure to be but a heart beat away.
The US Food and Drug Administration recently approved AstraZeneca's new cancer drug Gefitinib (Iressa), the first of a new class of cancer drugs billed as a well tolerated alternative to conventional chemotherapy. Gefitinib belongs to a class of drugs known as epidermal growth factor receptors, which block signals in cancer cells that promote growth. The FDA said its approval was based on a 142-patient trial in which Gefitinib reduced tumour size by more than 50% in 10.6% of subjects, with a median response duration of seven months. As this outcome occurred as late as May 10 this year, one would assume if Vaxinia is successful in producing similar if not more promising data in its existing (MAST Trial) into up to 100 patients and 10 solid tumour cancer indications, the FDA would be happy to work with Imugene, as they have done with Astra Zeneca, toward a fast track approval for this much needed drug.
More specifically if Vaxinia is successful in combination with Keytruda, this opens the door to an approval for a broad cross section of cancer indications, given Keytruda's current approval status to treat multiple cancer types. As investors we do not have long to wait, and with this in mind I would suggest we turn our minds to the situation at hand, as opposed to the past. Efficacy data is the key, and it is but moments away. The footprint left in the wake of this data could be everlasting, for both cancer sufferers and investors alike. I myself choose to sit back and wait your turn, with the courage, fortitude and resilience required in the face of adversity. But I am not you, and as always you must be guided by your own knowledge, research and risk appetite.
DYOR Seek investment advice as and when required Opinions only
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