Mozart... Just saw your HC post from Friday with boxes to be ticked and your corresponding shareprice estimates.
Good post but Maybe a little pessimistic on some of sp values??
To be fully comprehensive I probably would have included in there some additional boxes with additional uplift in value at these stages :
*Commencement of combination trial with Herceptin
*Results from combo trial
*Commencement of mimotope PD -1 ph1
*Interim Results from PD-1
*Commencement of PD-1ph2
*Final results from PD-1
A succesful combo study with Herceptin represents a very major milestone . That’s an understatement.
Roche’s Herceptin patent already expired in Europe in 2014 and will expire in USA in June 2019. That’s ~$7billion per annum in revenue at big risk of going to “copy cats” with a cheaper bio similar product.
Already Roche has sued Pfizer for infringement of copyright...
http://www.**ionline.net/Biosimilars/General/Roche-sues-Pfizer-over-Herceptin-biosimilar
A successful outcome with improved results with a combo therapy with HerVaxx offers Roche a compelling way to hold on to this US$7 billion revenue per year by re patenting the combo.
Or...a stand alone superior result by HerVaxx also offers Roche a means of protecting market share by partnering with Imugene and rolling out HerVaxx to replace Herceptin
Potentially this could extend the patent protection and their current sales of Herceptin for another 16 years or so.
From a very simplistic financial point of view, the NPV of spending half a billion in year 1 and 2 for completion of trials etc, and then receiving 16 years of revenue running at US$ 7 billion per year is US$43 billion in value. HUGE and worth getting a hold on!
( imagine that...selling out to Roche for say US $10 billion, or US$3 a share...looks fantastic from here but in fact if current sales are replicated we are actually ripped off to the tune of US $33billion!!)
hence the massively huge importance of this box being ticked!
Oh... and then we should add in some value for the Mimotope platform...potentially replicationg current sales of Opdivo and Keytruda with PD-1.
The numbers begin to stack up with big boxes being ticked. The current Big Pharma sales at risk is more than just $10 billion per annum if Imugene can develop not just 1 or 2 vaccines but a platform to roll out multiple vaccines that can “ replace or augment” a handful or more of the most successful monoclonal antibodies... annual market US$75 billion and growing.
Not surprising sentiment and price are looking very strong in recent weeks. Higher highs, and higher lows, and beginning to trend beautifully.
And only going to improve as the year rolls on, because as value builds much bigger global biotech fund managers than Platinum will be sitting up and taking notice driving this towards a fair value.
Did someone say “ Building a formidable biotech company”?
(20min delay)