My final buy today. I had a buy at 22c and 21c in morning, I was not expecting it but both got hit on open auction - I was surprised.
Anyway, that completes my buy and now my average is 21.5c. When I started buying, my first buy was at 22c. So that was the number which I thought is a good buy and wanted somewhere around that. To get average lower, though only 0.5c I thought was bonus.
So what happens next? I am no chartist but I do read the charts analysis with interest. My strategy is slightly different, I look at trading zones. For this I do a lot of number crunching. Some could say its similar to charting, but based on my understanding, its different. Like I ignore a number of red signs that chartists present as long as it falls within my trading zones. Does it work? Sometimes, but my win percentage is better than losses (including selling early), so I feel I may have been lucky.
In normal circumstances, I would have been very happy to hold and wait for the share to find its way. I would still be wary of my lower trading zone, and normally I sell half immediately if it gets below my trading zone. If it falls further, it will depend on the particular situation whether I hold or sell the other half. Mostly I have felt that I have held, though I have had few losses and sell more a bit down. So overall loss, half slight and other half slightly bigger. But most times I have been able to wait. I either sell or hold, I don't start buying lower. I will only buy if it comes near my half sell point - that is the stage I will buy, sometimes not only the half I sold, but more, because its an uptrend.
But these are not normal circumstances. The war situation has created an event which is not predictable. I don't know how chartists do, but for me, my way of trading - is to just assume that it will be unpredictable. What I only hope in this situation is that if things worsen, It is close to my buy price or just below so that I can sell half (or more - eg if nuclear weapon is thrown in Poland). I worry only about big gap on sell with an incident.
So considering both these situations, I will probably do this. First zone of my trading range is between 22c and 27c (plus/minus 1c or a very brief but insignificant incursion either side in terms of volume or effect). So I will be watching this trading zone. If it gets towards 20-20.5c, I may sell half. Last time it touched 22c, it started trading up towards the zone 22c-27c. This time yesterday it touched 21.5, and today 21c. For me 21c is the incursion that I had mentioned. Sometimes I do trade around this zone, even though profit margin is only around 20%. I designate a portion of my share for trading and play - this is when it looks like it is consolidating and playing in this range more than couple of times. But otherwise I will hold and my first sell will be near the upper zone of next trading zone. Of all my holdings, I always have a percentage for long term, and percentage for short-term trading.
I know I have babbled and it may not make sense to many. I was just putting down my thoughts what I am going to do next. More for myself I think so please ignore if it doesn't make sense. Anyway, lets be positive and hope we make gains from here - I know everybody hopes/thinks the same after buying. DOW got hammered yesterday night, pre-market is also not looking good. But my probability theory is saying either sideways (slight red/green) or good green. War situation can change everything with an incident, but lets hope we get a good green and move towards the higher side of current trading range. All the best.
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