Time aside, this is playing out as expected and hoped. This is encouraging for me, to see a return to technicals and price action becoming more 'normal' and predicable. I hope that it continues. Let's see what happens with the interest rate ripples.
We've had some important technical bull events over the last couple of weeks so let's revisit and update them. This will build on elements of the prior analysis linked above so feel free to re-read them if you have nothing better to do.
MonthlyWe've started a new monthly bar now. The candles, particularly the wicks, tell the story here. Long wicks on the bottom show smart money taking advantage of every drop down. Bears have not been able to close a candle near the lows with the exception of that massive bull-bear tug of war when we first approached the 61.8% at 0.245. In addition, the May and June candles are synonymous with a bottom forming pattern, wicks and candles indicating fairly even strength across the battle field. The monthly e21 (yellow) unfortunately is strengthening the first hurdle as it is doubled up with the 0.245 fib level. This level will fall of course, however it is assisting the accumulators for now. The cyan e55 is a relatively unused MA, however it acts as a strong S&R level. Good news is that it's our support and has repulsed attempts to close beneath it.
WeeklyThe larger the TF, the more weight it carries. The larger the Support/Resistance moving average, the more weight it carries. It is not at all surprising then to see the price bounce hard off the weekly s200 MA at 0.1325(now at 0.135)dotted red. We had a good volume week last week, and we are running on bullish divergence. Immediate resistance above us is the e21 which is a beast in its own right at 0.225. This is the level we are currently playing with, however the main hurdle remains since April at 0.245, when we dipped under the 61.8% long term fib. Once we crack that level with a retest in the form of a bounce then we can all start to feel a lot more positive moving forward.
DailyThe daily continues to offer encouragement for us. We've now closed above the e21(yellow) again, but significantly this is the first time since our down trend began from the all time highs that we have successfully held up a retest and bounced off it. This is now our validated new support level. While not a guarantee that we won't go under it again, it is certainly an indication of technical bull strength. Our larger MAs are softening slope, the e55 and smaller MAs are increasing slope in our favour. The green w5 signal line has even bounced off its the e55 and on the move again. We've been playing off some minor bullish divergence as well.
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