Essentially nothing has changed yet, we need to
close above and then bounce off the long term (24/05/2021) 61.8% fib at 0.245. Because of its strength, weight and age it
is the key to all of the price action of the past couple of weeks. There are lots of other minor levels (relative to the fib) bouncing around above and below pointed out in analysis that are all playing their part, however even though accurate they are essentially the side show. That 61.8% at 0.245 is the main event. The other levels become more or more less important as your time horizon changes, if you are under the 0.245 the levels under are battled over by the bulls and bears, when we are above its the same thing. I mentioned in some analysis months ago that we are going nowhere until we bounce off that fib zone and validate it as our new support, and so far we wait. This is the reason for my opening statement that essentially nothing has changed yet.
The truth though, is many technical boxes
have been ticked off and continue to be ticked off. These have been covered in detail by the shorter time frame analysts in this thread. This post would be better suited for after tomorrow's close. But let's jump the gun and have a look anyway.
MonthlyThe key here is to close above the e21. We do this at 0.250 or higher. But it's only the 4th, so 26 days to go. What is really good is that that we already have a decent lower wick. We can easily go on to print another 50% gain without this candle looking out of place. A close above this e21 on the weekly and daily(today) will be viewed as bullish.
WeeklyThis has been the main chart for that 0.245 level. We have remained above it for 3 weeks if we close tomorrow at 0.245 or higher. Our MA's are all turning up nicely and as they turn positive and increasing slope they are building momentum, like the yellow e21 and red e200. This chart remains bullish imo and we should start to see some movement again next in the next week or so.
DailyThis is looking good. The MACD has printed a smaller bar today so we can assess divergence, and we have bullish divergence. It doesn't matter if you use the one I've drawn or the valleys in the green section, it is all bullish divergence. Most importantly of course, is we have closed above the fib again and it didn't take too long relative to the time frame. We have tagged the e200 above us, but I anticipate this to only offer token resistance now, imo its not a real bear barrier. We shall see though, one can never tell. Looking at the MA method, there is nothing but good here. One may need to go back and ready
prior analysis here to see the full picture. Yellow e21 has crossed the blue e100 and both are turning upwards. Green w5 has now turned again and is on the move to pierce the e200 and should do so, the e200(red) being essentially flat. We have also done today on higher volume.
Of course, we could simply bypass all this back and forth around the 0.245 with news over the weekend or any time. Fundamentals always take precedent over technicals. And while this may seem like a complete contradiction of that statement, and without going into too much detail, I also agree thoroughly with mcgaffen, that an analyst proficient enough with TA can see the fundamental picture on a chart, without ever having to look at the company or what they do. But note that mcgaffen is in essence, a trader. A position trader. There is still a difference between a trader and an investor, and I do believe an investor is wise to know the Fundamentals so as to be able to ride out the waves.
My super account purely holds positions based on the long term TA. I can't even tell you what companies I am invested in. All I did was load up the asx200 starting at Aa and bought in when I saw setups, I certainly didn't look at fundamentals. I'm break even still despite the last 6 months, so I agree that fundamentals can be irrelevant when you are proficient enough with TA and stick to your rules.
For Friday, I expect to see us close above that daily red e200. I'm seeing definite signs of build up in bullish momentum and we are due for another attempt. Recall previous analysis targets, we are only looking at going to 0.295-0.320 area for now. News aside, after that I would dearly like to see a retrace to tag 0.245 zone and finally give us the bounce we need. Without that bounce, we drop back below 0.245 and start again. This level is critical to validate as support, it is the hardest step in the journey upward again. But we have the Sherpas and the packs are loaded.
*did not proof read sorry, It's late.
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Now entirely off topic and unrelated to IMU... did anyone else get news today for the start of the new service year from GB?
(20min delay)
