After last week it's time for a fresh analysis to see where we are at. As always we start with the longest time frame as it provides the weightier information. Apologies for any typos, I just can't be bothered to proof read it.
WeeklyNot much to say about the weekly really, all in all we are up for the week. The MA's are continuing to increase their slope showing the momentum of the move. Ultimately this indicates what you see here will be the long term trend if the fundamentals do not disappoint. If the are as expected or better than expected this is the trajectory we can look forward to for quite some time. I am not saying that we won't have significant down weeks, even consecutive ones, but there is technically no reason to expect that we won't recover from them and continue pressing forward. I have kept the 2 long term fibs we've been watching in yellow (423.6 @ 0.425 and 685.4 @ 0.650) so we can monitor them, they are and will continue to be key levels. The pink fib however is the new long term kid on the block and I have stretched it out so we can see the key levels moving forward.
Daily Thursday's retrace gave us a nice bounce off the e21. This coincides nicely with the 38.2 fib. With our fib trade Rules (38.2% to 138.2%) this gives us a legitimate target of 0.645 which happens to match up nicely with our long-term November fib at 0.650. The slope of the MA's is quite nice and I will be interested to see if the green w5 has actually been repulsed northward by the yellow e21 at such a long distance. You can see the little dip in the w5 on Thursdays candle. It will be interesting to see if it turns upwards from here. Keep in mind that the w5 does not like to stay away from the e21 for too long and will eventually come down to meet it. However every day that passes and with the steepness of the e21 coming up in multiple cents per day, the w5 won't have too far to go to meet up with it, unless we jump higher again.
Of significance I believe, is we have not had a daily close under the 0.425 (423.6% Nov fib). I believe this is our new base and looking on a 15 minute chart you can see this zone was retested as we came through it again after Thursday's retrace. I believe, and hope, that this zone will be retested over the next couple of sessions further validating it as support. We are looking for bounce off this zone (possibly after kissing 0.425). This should cause a retest of our highs at 0.495
Lastly, if we fluff around here for a few days/week or so, it will not only take further heat out of the stellar run, but if we print any red bars on the MACD (shown as A in the bottom right) larger than the red bars in the middle of the MACD, that will give us a bullish divergence. The bigger the bars we make the stronger the divergence (as long as we stay above the 0.20).
HourlyI've got a lower trend line drawn in on our bull run from the last couple of weeks. It's a key resistance level that we will need to get through which we've failed to cross it at our first attempt. Like all S&R we are looking for a close above it on the hourly (minimum), followed by retesting the zone and validating it as a new support level. Incidentally when this broke to the downside it also contributed to the enthusiasm of Thursday's sell off. Before we get to that trend line though there is a horizontal trendline coming in 0.460. I'm not sure what reason the market has for watching this level (I only saw some minor fibs), but it is there as a decent resistance none the less as seen in the 15min below. We will need to see it broken, closed above and bounced off for us to move on.
There is no divergence to see. Love the way the w5 has bounced off the e55 and gone straight back through the e21, MAs are happy in their order, let's see how the e21 interacts with the e55 in coming sessions.
15min Posted this one to see the market watching the two trend lines.
If you look at the way the aqua e55 has been rejected from crossing the blue e100 and the other lower MAs then crossed back, this is the 2nd strongest bull continuation signal(strongest being the same thing but blue e100 being rejected by the red e200). Unfortunately it's only on a 15min chart, but if price bounces off the blue e100 that could be enough to get through all our nearby resistance levels.
Thursday's Volume analysis.This is an interesting chart, it visualise the volume on the time axis. Disclaimer is that I don't know what data feed is used and if it includes chi-x or not, but if it doesn't it should be fairly representative. It also does not appear to include the auctions unfortunately, coz that Thursday close one would be a fatty. This chart shows when and how much volume moved around for each 15min bar. Dark colour is the body of the candle, light colour is the wicks. My Red lines represents the volume it took to drive the price to 0.33. Green lines shows the recovery that followed until it started going sideways. Yellow shows us the full move from 0.33 unil Friday close.
Obviously the same amount of shares were sold as those that were bought, this cannot change. It gives a good indication of driving force behind the price movements selling was quick and savage, buying was more controlled and consistent. It shows us when comparing the yellow and red lines that buyers(net) are prepared to pay more than the sellers are willing to sell (net) for the 2 days, and also shows that the sell off if orchestrated, allowed for an overall cheaper buy in than it otherwise would have.
I'm hoping it will be a relatively boring week (or at least until the next news drops, whichever is shorter). It would be nice to see it range between our S & R for a few days and maybe break through it (up) towards the end of the week. There are technical arguments for both bulls and bears, so I'm happy to just sit and watch.
Keeping up with the forum on the other hand...
Worth a read:
(20min delay)
