Week ending 18th Nov analysis for IMUOC conversionGetting to the pointy end of the stick for some. Unfortunately the price has not met expectations leading to the end of the month and the 30th deadline for IMUOC's.
8 business days remain to have them converted - don't mess that timing up for the sake of a couple of pips. As is so often the case, the main moves come after the options deadline. The timing of events and below analysis indicates that while the potential for an up move in the next few days remains, that the main show will come in Dec. Having said that, we are then looking at the standard end of year Christmas selling. Be nice to catch a break.
WeeklyIn looking at this chart, we see here that the main benefit is that we are 1 week closer to the end of the wedge, highlighted in the yellow trend lines. I have added the lower trend line, courtesy of
@JoeCool5150 earlier post as it highlights the lower bound basically running parallel with the s200 MA. This leaves 3 weeks trade, interestingly coinciding with the Dec 9 news release, until we run out of room in the wedge. If we use the s200 then we have 4 weeks. It is rare for the price to make it all the way to the point without breaking out, so we should see some action in the next 2 weeks. This particular event unfortunately wont be in time to help those stuck in the position of needing to sell heads for conversion. It does show though, as per past analysis over the last couple of months, that things are about to heat up. Current direct S&R lower is the e200 at 0.1825, the upper is e21 at 0.2075. In order to remain in the wedge, the upper will need to switch to the trend line, or else if it aims for the e21 will cause a potential breakout.
Daily
Ideally we want to see a strong start to the week. The green w5 is strengthening downward slope, we don't want to see it break back through the yellow e21, however the yellow has also turned slightly downward now so this is a distinct possibility. What I do like however, is that it only has a couple of pips to go before it meets our unbroken base (the s200) at a max low now of 0.155, and more likely the trend line at about 0.170. Also, if we look at the price interaction with that trend line, we see wicks remaining under the candles. This shows that despite the effort to sell off, the buyers took advance of this at every opportunity. When we contrast this with the upper trend line, we see most recently that the 4th attempt resulted in a fake-out (false break). This shows that buyers are ready to pile on whenever this breakout is allowed to mature. It is my opinion that as we get closer to the end of the wedge, the upside is more likely than the downside. Especially factoring in news early Dec. To get a better idea of what may happen Monday and Tuesday we need to look at a smaller timeframe.
HourlyI've dropped the current short term fib back on the chart mentioned last week. We see that we are currently using the strongest fib level (61.85%) as support at 0.180. This is encouraging for a positive open Monday morning, however it is the second attempt to break it, so if it does bounce then a 3rd attempt will be unlikely to hold. We do see signs from the closing auction (back up to 0.185) of the green w5 wanting to turn back up. If it does, this will bode very well for Mon and Tues in my opinion. The Blue e100 remains above the e200 -just- and so should the green w5 get through the ema cluster at 0.190-0.195 I would anticipate a strong bull rally (relative). We could very well be looking at the last hoorrah of the bears. It is so often the case that the very last push down before a major turn looks like the down move will continue, just like the very last upswing before a major downturn looks like it will continue. As per Fridays intraday observation (linked above) this fits into that scenario. The green w5 crossing back through now constitutes the type of signal we want to see to start our bull run.
Its a tough position to be in if you need to sell. If I needed to do so still, my personal plan looking at the charts would be to wait and watch the open and opening hours trade. If it is trying to push higher, then there is a goo chance of a decent Monday and Tuesday. Keep in mind that Wednesdays are pretty flat typically, so with the approaching expiry of options I would be seriously thinking about my risk if I hadn't secured my capital by Wednesday. If tomorrow doesn't open positively, then you will need to make your own assessment. I'm around for the first hour or so of trade, so if I can I will keep an eye on it and try get a very brief post out before I head off.
(20min delay)