Well.. What an absolute mess.. I'm not even going to bother keeping up with the forum while it's like this, I started reading but there is so much rubbish. I like
@fattchoi suggestion to just go camping again.
Firstly, I need to say that my previous analysis has been looking more at the shorter term moves simply because there is nothing to update on the long term charts, we have been sitting pretty. Short term could have gone either way, it looked bullish to me however it wasn't sustained. I have said that I prefer to stick to the longer term calls because the longer the TF the more accurate we can be.
I've checked in with the
price for the last few days and haven't felt the need to check a
chart in this time - as far as I'm concerned we aren't seeing anything that wasn't in the scope of what was reasonably on the table. I have just now pulled up the charts and I am still in fact very comfortable holding my position after seeing what is happening. I feel quite positive about the moves, and I would like to share why.
Elliot
Most Elliot (fractals) pullbacks, in order for the price to move forward, happen in 2 waves, that is the A-B-C. We had a pull back with our MSCI event, and we've had the second one now. I haven't analysed the count for a while, there are a few people doing that. If this sticks to the probabilities then we are due for a decent swing higher
if this is the A-B-C.
Weekly
Our last 2 weeks of pullback have been on relatively lower volume as can be seen here(excl chi-x). It's not people jumping ship, it's a necessary and expected pullback. Technically speaking this has been called as coming by many including myself. The best thing you can learn to do is detach your emotion from these pullbacks. They are healthy and they are positive. The better and more solid (technically speaking) the pullback is the more likely we are going to hold our gains moving forward. I mentioned i'l previously if the pullback is on relatively low volume we should see a fairly good recovery once it is over, so again take a look at the volume. There is a significant resistance level that rises week on week, and that's the e21 coming in at 0.23 - I'd be extremely surprised if the price got anywhere near it, but if by chance it did, you will see how significant of a level it will be for two reasons - e21 is a major S&R level, and it's on a weekly chart. It's a massive level. Of additional bull evidence is that the vast majority of the time after a big run, the green w5 always bounces at a distance off the e21 and moves higher on the first turn. It would be quite normal for the w5 to turn up now or any time in the next couple of bars(read weeks). There is nothing on this chart for the bears to be excited about imo. All our major MA's are indicating that the momentum of the bull run will continue. But bear in mind this is a weekly chart and plays out over many months.
Daily
What a fantastic chart to see. Firstly, the divergence here is massive, the bears are driving this down against a spring at great pressure. What out when it releases. If you'd like to see the benefits of a divergence move on the daily, have a look at them just prior to the run up for 0.092 to 0.495. We are seeing the same thing. They can take time to pop but they go good when they do.
The e55 is also a major S&R MA and being on the daily will carry significant weight and comies in at 0.28. This latest swing down is is better than the first, firstly because it's the second run, and secondly because it's hit the 50% fib on the nose at 0.295 - this further validates this fib as the primary one in focus at the moment. I don't expect this move to go too much lower, if at all, and if it happens to try the strongest fib is in at 0.245. I'm fairly confident the bears don't have the steam to get through all of these, especially with news on the way. Following our fib rules with what we see now however, this gets pretty exciting because our primary target (after we close above and retest the high at 0.495) is now upgraded from 0.645 [38.2% to 138.2%] to 0.740 [50% to 161.8%]. Nice candle to close on today too. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a reversal from here.
Hourly
We are also showing bullish divergence here, and my MA system is looking good for the strongest bull continuation signal. It's too early for standby yet but I'll be watching with keen anticipation.
It's a little disappointing to see how far this particular thread has deteriorated recently. I think that this thread would benefit greatly if everyone who values analysis on IMU price action puts the all the clowns on ignore, or at the very least don't engage them. I can't see what they are saying as I ignored them ages ago, however I can see that many good people unintentionally hijack the thread by engaging with the fools. Perhaps this comes down to not trusting in the value of the pullbacks, perhaps its just the love of banter, but it's impacting the view of the posters who make meaningful contributions here. Please try to stay on topic and don't engage fools. If you do you give them the soapbox
(20min delay)