Hi mate,
Thankyou for your post. I probably can't answer with the detail that you would like, however I'm more than happy to share my thoughts.
I fully agree with your point regarding macro fundamentals, I do believe that the macros are one of the main reasons we retraced so far, it has certainly nothing to do with the company fundamentals and I would challenge anyone to show a post of mine that suggests the company is responsible for our low share price. But this is not a new thought of mine - anyone who has follows my analysis over the years would be able to recall that I have actually posted many times on this specifically along with my lines of reasoning why, and have always openly stated that fundamentals will always come before technicals - fundamentals coming in the form of company fundamentals and macro fundamentals.
However, what may come as a surprise is that I actually don't pay a great deal of attention to the details of the macro situation, just the headlines, and more for a general interest than out of any financial one. Some folks watch all sorts of indices to get a feel for the broad market, watching all sorts of things to see how the price will react etc. What many people find difficult to grasp however, is what the IMU chart (or any other chart) actually is. The IMU chart is not Imugene, the IMU chart is actually a composite of Imugene plus all the macros that have had any possible influence on the price. For example, you can clearly see the acquisition and media push surrounding cf33, you can clearly see the fast track of Vaxxinia, and all the cap raises, but you can also see the global Covid sell off the Imugene chart, you can see the Ukraine invasion on the Imugene chart. Those are just the big ones, but be assured that all the little ones are right there in the mix.
A chart is simply a visual representation of no less than 6 simultaneous influences - the combined total of 1)positive macros, 2)positive company 3)negative macros, 4)negative company, 5)positive technical and 6)negative technical. All of this information is fed into the market machine and it spits out that data as a single price in time. The strongest influence at any particular time will dictate the price movement, and often we don't even know for what or why the price is moving. But does that really matter? Not to me, but let me explain.
Because all that information is already calculated into a single price and displayed on a chart (yes, as a live rear view mirror) then any form of technical analysis is really taking all that information into account. Obviously that is relative to the time frame, so a day trader watching an hourly chart is hardly concerned about the overall effect that the Ukraine crisis is having on the price for the last couple of years, they are only concerned with what effect it has on the price here and now, and that's what their indicators are looking at. On the other hand, when an analyst zooms out and looks at much larger time frames, then all these bigger events, the Ukraine crisis, Covid, inflation issues, the Middle East, it all matters, and it is on the chart in the indicators.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but when it comes to forward looking statements, I have not seen anyone post anything that the macros would run as deep as they did. And I include your comments in this, because I'm sure that you, like me, would have absolutely sold at 64c and bought back at 4c, like every single person here. Unfortunately however there was no way for anyone to know that there would be a chain of huge nasty macros that would drag us through the mud. Trillions of dollars were lost from the markets in the last 2 years.
On occasions I have reflected on the analysis I posted as we worked out way down to 0.240, and I stick by it. The analysis that I use is forward looking. I couldn't care less about the past, except for what it can tell me will probably happen in the near future (relative to the time frame). It is also very high probability, meaning that anything I post of a technical nature is expected happen (as opposed to my opinion on fundamental issues). I also don't believe that any of the technical analysis was wrong in a technical sense, at least generally speaking. I say this with confidence, because I am always careful to point out the differences between what we want see, what is likely to happen and what has happened. For example, much of the TA I posted on the way down was regarding the price levels of the areas where we would expect to see a bounce, and what the target would be if it did. It was also pointed out that should the price fail to hold there, what the next level of support was. Once we got to 0.245, the long term fib, it was the highest probability turning point. Then, if I remember correctly (and that's questionable) the only significant support left was the 200 moving average on the weekly(?) at around 14c(?).
You are correct however, I underestimated the affect the macros have had on the markets, and definitely did not expect to see all of these high probability price zones fall one after the other. That was generally the theme of my analysis, but it also leads to a further point.
At the beginning of this post, I said that the macros is a main reason, but I strongly believe that it is not the only reason. I have considered this carefully many times. Imugene copped a beating far more than others did. Not only that, but the way the price was sold into on every single positive news over the last couple of years, as well as how all these high probability levels fell one after the other leads me to believe that we have been intentionally pushed down for one reason or another. And I cannot fathom another explanation for that behaviour. I believe that it was most likely to accumulate, and while unlikely, we may one day we may get some sort of idea who or how big the holder is.
Everyone is responsible for their own decisions, especially when it comes to investing. I certainly hope that no-one regrets their decision because of anything I have posted, I'm just another anonymous face behind a keyboard. Personally though, now with hindsight, I wish I sold at the top and used it all to buy in at bottom, who doesn't. But I don't regret sticking to my guns and holding until now. Each step of the way the price could have turned and run. Each step of the way a deal could have come along each step of the way macros could have improved. That remains true for each day forward from now. While it would be nice to go back and sell then to rebuy now, I would be absolutely devastated to miss the main event. And at end the day, I am meaningfully more exposed to IMU now than I was at those highs. I don't mind sitting through paper losses (although I only had them for a couple of weeks) waiting for the end game, I am here for the long term and refuse to miss this ride to chase other opportunities elsewhere. For me, that is the real risk for Imugene.
Hopefully I've commented in a manner that satisfies your curiosity. I'm heading bush for a week in the morning. Enjoy
(20min delay)
