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Yep ! Good points. As for top or bottom ? As a trader I would...

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    Yep ! Good points. As for top or bottom ? As a trader I would argue that the market should have no top or bottom so there is no need to place an arbitrary value to it. The laws of asymmetric and symmetric risk do however dictate that there will be a point in time where the risk reward ratio will become inverted. This supports your observation of short positions appearing to be loaded as more likely than not to be true. As inflation pushes us ever so closer to a cycle of stagflation, without utmost caution of emotion and respect for both the economy and the laws of large numbers the market will however destroy all and any in its path. My opinion only of course !

 
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