@Jesse99Continuing from your observation of the stepwise nature...

@Jesse99

Continuing from your observation of the stepwise nature of price movements and my reply, I have tried to determine the period, frequency and predictability of such movements.

Fibonacci Time Zones have been used in this analysis.

Method:

I have started a zone at the bottom of a sharp price increase and continued to the high price. (This is shown as Zone 0 to 1 on the horizontal axis.)

The starting point was 23 September 2020.

(Note that Zone 1 to 2 and Zone 2 to 3 are duplicated by the inbuilt tool (Trend-Based Fib Time).)
(There are some explanatory notes and comments on the charts. Some dates have been added for clarity.)

After three zones, a new zone is selected from low to high price and zones duplicated. This was done for three time periods.

Periods 1 and 2 are shown in Chart 1. Period 3 is shown in Chart 2.

The results are shown on log scale charts. (Many more interesting observations may be made while interactively performing the process, but space will limit the number of observations that can be included.)

Chart 3 has regression channels drawn (that we discussed last Sunday) to see if they do match any of the time zones.

Results:

It is remarkable that the price movements continue a horizontal matching pattern, on 38, 62, 100% levels for price inflections.

It appears that there is a high probability of correctly predicting price inflections.

The future dates that are likely to have significant activity are on or about October 15 and 29, November 12 and 19, December 3, 17 and 24 as marked on Chart 3.

(While the past time zone patterns are quite accurate, the timing may be out by few days, sometimes early, other times late.
Of the above quoted dates, a window of +/- 3-4 days may be needed based on recent deviations since August 20, 2021.)

Chart 3 has me wondering whether there is going to be an inflection in about 2 days or whether the price will continue sideways until it approaches the 2SD Regression Channel approx mid-late November or overshoots in early December.

There have been 2 maybe 3 bounces off the 1SD lower channel since late 2020. I am not sure whether to count the bounce after 20 August as it did not continue much past the Regression Mean. If its counted, we have 3 bounces. The other two bounces, continued to the upper 2SD channel. (Refer to the channel chart in my previous post.)

There has been only one bounce off the 2SD lower channel.

I'll repeat what I wrote on Chart 3 - The 2SD Regression Channel intersection with the 62 and 100% Fib Time Zones could be a powerful indicator of a significant price bounce (mid-late November or early December).

Summary:

We might have a start to a serious jump(/fall?) in a few days or mid-late November or early December.

Is anyone following Elliott Waves able to confirm or offer differing timing please?

Chart 1



Chart 2



Chart 3