No more than yourself mate. Really appreciate your fundamental analysis and updates. Out of curiosity, is there anything new on the ichimoku? I love ichi but not set up for it.
What a great day again, and highlighting the benefit of a litte technical understanding. Hitting the long term 423.6 fib today was nothing special on my part. It was simply being able to decipher a chart and I believe it's something that anyone can learn if they want to.
I'm relieved to see that a bit of a retrace has taken place. This will allow, even if only a little, any 'overbought' indicators to cool off, which for the record I do not use. But they play their role and can affect a chart like any indicator because people watch them and use them to buy and sell with. I'm expecting tomorrow, at least for the opening part of the day, to be positive again for a number of reasons.
- A large part of the buying at these levels is not retail, there have been many quite large single transactions that resulted in line wipes through out today's session, even higher than where we are at now. If someone is prepared to buy on market knowing that the standard manipulation games won't work, others will too, especially as we are a little lower.
- We have finally had a decent sort of a retrace after touching our target. Yes it didn't go far and I would have liked to have seen it go further, however a few posts back I mentioned that the bear moves will likely be muted and the bull moves should be exaggerated. In my opinion this is still very much the case. Don't stand in front of a charging bull.
- The key MA's of my method are all increasing their slope indicating that the momentum is on going. The price loves to come back to the e21 (always yellow on my charts) across any chart. The fact that the MA's are so steep means that the e21 is keeping up with the price fairly well. The price won't have as far to come back to the e21 as it would with a price spike out of the blue, which often retraces 100% because the e21 is so far away still. We've all seen that happen on other charts. Even our major daily e21 us nearly at the 0.28 fib, and our hourly is only a cent lower than this afternoons retracement.
- We did not have much session time remaining after the retrace to get any feel for what it means on the hourly or larger TF's, other than it appears to be a bounce. However if we zoom down by 4 to the 15min we start to see what looks like the bulls are already back, which is likely why there was a bit of a spike between our last traded price and final auction.
- The 15min has a pretty good bullish divergence, the MA's have already recovered their slope and we closed back above the e21. The e55 MA is as good as an e21 for support and resistance purposes, and this has backed up the fib bounce
- The hourly's red retrace bar is followed by a doji indicating a potential reversal back to the trend.
If this is actually a legitimate bounce, and so far it looks to be the case, then we are looking to retest highs at 42.5 from this next swing. If we close above it, and especially if that close is followed by a bounce of the 0.425 then 0.485 is our new target (50% to 161.8%).
Please keep in mind that the 423.6 should be a
major resistance level. This is why we bounced so hard off it at first touch. If we fail to close above it this swing (we can legitimately have a few attempts while we are there before we call it a fail - read ascending wedge) we could have a more significant breather or retracement. Ultimately either situation is good for us.
(20min delay)