Morning all, shocking weather down here, no sailing today.
Thought I'd do some homework and share my drivel. It's only my interpretation so make up your own conclusions.
Don't mind admitting that the SP action this week did my head in and the market gave me a smacking so off course I need to do a bit of analysis to plan my next move. Was so close to pulling the trigger on our entire holding on Friday but walked away from the computer instead.
Below chart has some significant milestones so from a TA perspective we can implant some definitives. It's highly likely that the Insto's that took positions on the ASX300 inclusion distributed (sold off) a large portion (or all) of the holdings around the high 50's levels as there was strong red candle volumes at that time. Classic distribution. In hind sight that should have been the signal that this was going to be highly worked coming into ASX200 inclusion but at the time that wasn't confirmed. (for us plebs anyway).
Conclusion; It's my belief (I may be blissfully delusional), that the short term downtrend was a result of a skilfully orchestrated churn of shares co-ordinated behind the scenes between insto's and carried out to allow big positioning at a deflated price. (thank you Captain Obvious).
Those insto's that got the 30 cent placement would now be well gone and enjoying their Christmas bonuses, a job well done.
The new far larger insto's will now be wanting a return on investment so in light of where the SP finished Friday I can only see it rising from here regardless of FA.
I see strong support now at the mid .40's level and it's where the insto's see support as well so follow their lead IMO. As I said yesterday if it fails and it looks like .40 may be on the cards then I'm out completely.
Tough time of the financial year and generally volumes are far lower as most insto's are now on holidays so not expecting much over next couple of weeks but early to mid Jan I'm expecting a reasonable reversal to the positive.
What's got to be taken into account is that current day insto's are not like "cornerstone investors", they move around a lot and look for solid returns and move to the next one.
May be completely wrong with all this so happy to be corrected.
Cheers
click on chart to enlarge.
(20min delay)