IMUGENE CHART. TA only, page-9605

@slick

Nice analysis and seems logical. Dovetails with Zior's call of 42.5 being rock-solid support (if I have understood his latest TA post correctly).

Question in respect of your reference to "cornerstone investors" ...

After ASX300 inclusion, there were three main categories of institutional investor:

1. Index funds that were obligated to buy, due to tracking the ASX300;
2. Institutional investors that weren't obligated to buy, but were allowed to buy due to inclusion in the ASX300
3. Institutions that got the 30c placement (who were portrayed by Hopper at the time as "cornerstone investors").

If I understand you correctly, categories 2 and 3 have cut and run. Category 2 institutions are those that you refer to having sold off all or a large portion of their holdings in the high 50s. And the "cornerstone" investors (category 3) were only cornerstone up to the point that they made a 50-100% return in just a few months, as they exited between 45c and 60c (the Xmas bonus brigade)


The current institutional investors are:

1. Index funds that were obligated to buy, due to tracking the ASX300 (these remain);
2. Index funds that were obligated to buy, due to tracking the ASX200;
3. Institutional investors that weren't obligated to buy, but are now allowed to buy due to inclusion in the ASX200.


Effectively, you're saying the charts suggest new categories 2 and 3 got their shares in an orchestrated manner from the previous category 2 and 3 investors. And we should watch out, since the new category 3 institutions won't behave like "cornerstone investors" (ie, they will take gains aggressively if available and cut losses quickly if required). But this is what the 30c "cornerstone investors" did anyway.

Long winded, but I guess I'm looking for confirmation that you don't believe any institutions that have bought since ASX300 inclusion are cornerstone investors (in the way we might believe that such investors are in for the long haul - ie several years)? And if we do in fact have any cornerstone institutional investors they came on board, prior to ASX300 inclusion (and each own less than 5%, since none are "substantial")?