Been a minute. We aren't quite where I would have liked to be before starting some technical analysis again, however it's hard to deny that things are looking interesting again from a technical point of view. For the new folks, please take note of the following, and for those been around a while, take them as a reminder:
- I am here for the fundamentals. I perform TA for my own interest, not to trade.
- This analysis is of a long term nature, not short term. I rarely speak in terms of time frames - the market will move when it wants to move. Unless one employs voodoo then predictions of a time based nature are extremely unreliable. For the record, voodoo is bad.
- While individual assessments can always be inaccurate, in general this analysis is of high reliability when followed over time. That is because it is based on probability events. This particular method of TA employs a number of high probability parts to provide a forward looking outcome before hand. There are many folks who doubt the validity of this possibility - I am not interested in your comments. Take them to a different thread. If you want to argue the point this analysis will mock you over time, as has been the case in the past.
- If you want to know why I have said something, please ask. I am happy to share, however I mostly skim these forums now because of the drivel that pervades them. If you like, you can tag me @Zior and I should see it. If not, you either spelt my name wrong or were like a wine cork on the ocean with your posts and made it to my ignore.
- All methods of TA have their merits, this one works for me, but that doesn't mean it will work for others. Nor do I view other methods of analysis as inferior for other people - one must find a method that works best for them. Too much is noise and will complicate things. Follow the analys that best suits your style and time frame.
- Fundamentals always take priority over technicals.
- Fundamentals always take priority over technicals.
- Until a fundamental event (spike) settles down (retraces) it is often pointless to apply TA to it.
- Fundamentals can be either related to the company directly, or macro. They all play the part to effect the price. This is all accounted for in this method of TA due to the larger time frames and larger MAs.
- This analysis is always provided top-down from the strongest to the weakest - that is largest time frames to shortest, generally largest MA's to smallest, and strongest signals to weakest.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at where we are at. It is important to remember the imminent AGM meeting. I suspect that the volume I expected today from foreign markets on the news of the fast track yesterday will hold off until the AGM is done. Perhaps late session following the AGM (assuming no surprises) we will see a nice strong rally. The market hates uncertainty, and so will likely hold off taking new positions with the AGM vote looming. I suspect there is enough uncertainty around the vote for new players to wait for the dust to settle.
Weekly
Here we see the big picture. It's a pretty depressing chart for a company that has so much potential. Pick
any point in the chart and it is absolute fact that the fundamentals are stronger now. The darker dotted red moving average is a simple 200 (s200) and is the strongest resistance and support MA on the chart. Also being on the large time frame of the weekly, that makes the level of it at 0.177 a solid overhead resistance to break through. I suspect when we get there, there will be some significant churn/volume. It might not take long to get through, however it will take some volume to do it. If the AGM is good, and if there is international money waiting in the wings that could easily provide enough volume and momentum to push through it.
The exponential 200 (e200) is the solid red coming in at 0.150. It is a level in its own right, but not in the same league as the s200. It however is a crucial ema in the five moving average method I employ. You will note that it has started to weaken its slope and begin its turn back towards positive slope over the last couple of weeks. It is very hard for a momentum move to go against the e200. Most times, price will require several big swings up to nudge it positive, while at the same time it's downward slope will pull the price back. That's where we are now. You can expect much larger and stronger momentum moves to take place with a positive sloped e200 (red line). The blue e100 has unfortunately crossed over the e200. Normally, I would expect to see the green w5 to return towards the red e200 before significantly plummeting, however that is simply impossible. It only has 10cents to play out, whereas a move like this is many many multiples larger. In addition, the fundamentals do not support such a view. I have spoken many times before of the intentional effort to drive the price lower and keep it there and firmly believe that this crossover (e200-e100) would never have taken place without it. It is an anomaly that I am choosing to ignore.
What we can do however, is assume that rather than it being an actual cross it is actually being repulsed upward back away from the e200. This rejection of the e100 back upwards away from the e200 is the strongest signal I have in my book, and to see it on the weekly will indicate a re-rate of the wonderment. For those interested in the sheer power of this signal can look at the when the e100 was repulsed upwards from the e200 on the daily chart in April/May 2020 (Covid meltdown). That repulsion initiated the run from 0.03 to the 0.495. To see it happen on the weekly is crazy - we are looking at targets of $$ not $0.xx. Of course, this is long term that will take years to play out. I'm certainly not against a several years long bull run.
We also note that the lesser moving averages (e55 cyan, e21 yellow and w5 green) are either turning or have turned to positive slope. It is also important to point out that the green w5 has now crossed its marriage mate, the yellow e21 for the first time since June 22. Yes, things are getting interesting.
I expect to see the green w5 to bounce off the bottom of the cyan e55 and dip a little, allowing the larger ma's to flatten out more, before crossing and doing the same to the e100 and e200.
Of course, the old 61.8 fib at 0.245(purple horizontal) is the first real test of a major re-rate. We need to get across that and then use it as a spring board. Once this happens, I will start planning my early retirement.
Daily
Looking at the daily we can focus more on recent events. Drawing the fib on the recent news events (as some have already done) gives us much information. A is the lows of 0.039, B the highs of 0.150. This drops our C for the retrace to the 61.8%. Fib rules thus provides us with the D1 target of 161.8% at 0.22. Initial interim target of 0.00% (B) at 0.150 first. It's nice to have an official technical target again after so long.
Moving averages look spot on here to see this through too. Love how the yellow e21 has provided the support and the bounce for the w5- a good indication that technicals are playing ball.
All things going well I would expect to see price bounce off 0.150 again followed by another attempt or two. After popping through the level, price will likely retrace back to the 0.00 (at 0.150) and to retest it as support before heading to D1 of 0.220
Once again, the above analysis would mean a lot more if the AGM wasn't on our doorstep. If there are no surprises (positive or negative) then I expect to see this play out in the near future. If there are any surprises then we will need to reassess when the volatility settles down.
A special note to all the IMU bulls who have held fast to their fundamental confidence in the company and have had to put up with an endless supply of Muppets, I believe your firm stand is about to be vindicated. To all the Muppets, your humiliation is nigh.
(20min delay)
