Hi Kent JC
Yep still here, just been sitting back watching, Others seem to have a very good handle on Imugene so I have been taking a bit of a back seat for a while.
wish I had sold out at 3.7 and bought back now at 2.7 like Supercendol suggested, but nevertheless very happy with the recent announcement, I think I would have to say that if I was in management I would like to think that I would support the same strategy as has been outlined.
I also think it is highly likely that the share price could drop to below the new CR issue price but I don't expect it will stay there for long once announcements come out (which could be very soon) regarding currant trial progress, and as others have already said it is likely that those results could or should push the share price up to above the CR price.
and Kent as for my little story: (haven't posted it for a while)
I guess I will need to add some more shares to the market cap (I haven't done the sums yet, it will need updating- does anybody know how many shares will be on issue after the CR? ) but I would say that if IMU get the B cell technology sown up then its likely the income stream could conceivably be higher than I had previously estimated (as outlined below)
Imugene Epilogue:
The following epilogue has been written IMOHO and is for those who are new to IMU that are arriving daily on this forum, if that’s you? Then to you I give a warm welcome.
Although my following views are intended to be helpful they do come with a few words of warning;
If you’re a holder in IMU: It’s going to feel like forever for the reward to come, and you had better have a good stomach to handle the highs and the lows of this roller coaster share.
If you’re not a holder in IMU: Although I’m sure that in many years’ time IMU will still be a great company to invest in, for you, it’ll feel like no time at all, before the opportunity of getting in at a ridiculously low valuation has passed by.
Although by no means exhaustive I have set out below 10 reasons why and as a long term holder (and with a bit of crust in the sandwich) take a positive long term view of Imugene.
1: Humble, yet highly renowned board of directors (including a strategic partnership with Vienna medical university) and highly experienced competent management team, with the original developers and deal makers still holding significant stakes in this technology.
2: The creation of a method to manufacture what is considered to be the world’s first commercially viable polyclonal “B cell” cancer Vaccine (Her-Vaxx) and a B cell Mimotope technology platform.
3: Mimotopes are peptides that mimic the effects of specific B-cell epitopes in stimulating an immune response. Immunization with such mimotopes would be expected to induce a B cell immune response directed at the target disease related antigen. As such they have great utility as potential immunotherapeutic approaches for various cancers in much the same way as HER-Vaxx is being used to stimulate an immune response to the tumour antigen HER2 in breast or gastric cancer.
4: Outstanding IP: Worlds first vaccine to be designed by artificial intelligence (AI). The Method of producing these B cell Mimotope peptide vaccines has been patented; competitors need to find an alternative method to manufacture their B cell peptides.
5: Imugenes B cell Mimotope vaccines are Polyclonal and are considered to be considerably more potent than the monoclonal T cell vaccines which they replace. Imugenes polyclonal mimotope B cell vaccines invoke one’s own B cells to make your own antibodies therefore they have less chance of triggering autoimmune diseases, as is the case with the existing synthetically produced monoclonal T cell antigens. To date all trial results, whether done in vitro, on animals or in humans have all performed well.
6: This technology allows Imugene to add to and grow its own platform; in part IMU could do this by mimicking many other existing monoclonal antibodies and make polyclonal equivalents of them (these could include drugs such as Opdivo (marketed by BMS) and Keytruda (marketed by Merck). Sales reported for Opdivo and Keytruda in 2017 were USD4.95b and USD3.81b respectively and have double digit annual growth, for example by year 2022 Opdivo is expected to reach sales of USD10b).
7: Potentially disruptive Technology- Imugenes polyclonal antibody response is expected to be considerably safer than T cell drugs, therefore the T cell drugs which it replicates are likely to have greater restrictions applied to their use, or be pulled from market.
8: Technology like this has potential for many billions of dollars in sales. Typically licencing agreements pay the developer an upfront payment and/or at a later date milestone payments, and more importantly depending upon the size of those payments, make yearly royalty payments which are typically agreed at a figure of between 10% and 20% on sales, (in some cases I have heard of royalty payments to be as high as 60%).
9: Of that revenue generated a Biotech Company’s management decide how much to keep for administration and R&D with the balance remaining usually returned to shareholders. In this sector costs (compared to revenue) are typically low so shareholder pay-out ratios are often high (typically in the 80 to 90% range).
For example: a typical biotech company selling $1b of product under licence could earn the following:
$1Bilion of sales at a 20 % royalty = $200 million revenue pa.
Then that $200m might be distributed at follows;
20% of the $200m = $40m pa to administration & R&D (= sustained growth!)
80% of the $200m = $160m pa for a dividend distribution
that $160m is divided by issued capital (IMU has almost 3 billion shares) = 5.3 cents
That’s 5.3 cents per share dividend for each 1 billion of product sales alone! additional to that there could also be upfront, and milestone payments down the track too, for example (before deducting company running costs) an upfront or milestone payment of $500m equates to an additional 16.6 cents per share.
10: With each $1b of royalty sales potentially generating around 5.3 cents in dividends, it’s easy to see how someday $10b (or more!) of sales could potentially generate shareholders around 53 cents (or more!) per share in dividends, while at the same time making a large and positive difference for a lot of patients.
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