Aside from all the data, the science and all things nice, trials are tough. Imagine being a doctor with a cancer patient that hasn't responded to anything so far, and all you have left is to offer chemo, or perhaps put them on a trial, if they qualify. So they are open to a trial in the hopes that it might do the unknown and help them. The Doctor however, regardless of how much knowledge he has in the field, is now facing a bit of a problem. The trials space is very crowded, there are hundreds of trials in cancer. How do you make the choice? This is where the foot soldiers of the biotech come in, promoting and advertising their latests and greatest drug. All promising their new candidate will be the next big thing. All promising great safety. All promising great efficacy. All fighting for your patient. And why shouldn't they, they have just been approved by the FDA to run their new drug in humans. There is probably little difference to the doctor between one trial and the next, a sea of opportunities.
One of those foot soldiers was doing their best to promote a new drug candidate of a little unknown biotech from the land down under. They were trying to sell the idea that, like everyone else, 'the data shows it has the potential to help your patients' . 'It's true that this kind of treatment had never been attempted before, but that's where all great things come from '. 'It's good in rats'. 'Oh, and your patient by the way, only has a 50% chance of getting the new drug anyway, otherwise they just chemo. Please sign here.'This might shed a bit of light on why it has taken so long to recruit patients. And then someone coughed and killed a million people in the middle of it all. After all this time, we've only got 29 on board. Initially, we still needed another 39 to validate a conclusion in the trial. Now, we only need 5 more.
Our news this week... Wow our news this week. Our foot soldiers promoting this little Aussie biotech. How excited are they, they now have evidence that Bcell Tech works. It not only works, it appears to have the potential for a paradigm shift. This is going to be an easy sell. Recruiting patients for our trials just got a hell of a lot easier, which is fantastic consider PD1 its recruiting. My bet is that it wont take anywhere near as long to fill the trial numbers. Massive time delay hurdle cleared. The trial has been specifically designed to give the earliest signals possible. Another massive time delay hurdle out of the way. LC talks about data to drug taking 15 years, but has often said regarding our B cell and cf33 we're looking at a 5yr pathway due to the design of the trial. Another massive time delay hurdle cleared. And then we get things like news this week, where the IDMC recommends finishing early. Another hurdle passed. There will however be delays though - our patients are living longer.
The price goes up, the price goes down, it really just doesn't matter. If you like the idea behind what you have learned but can't hack the ups and downs around your entry, don't watch the price. Turn on price sensitive notices at the top of the page and come back later. I don't like seeing down moves as much as the next person, but they are healthy, and now I'm multiple bags up. Holding this stock is the best investment decision I've ever made. I hope you can be happy with your choice too.
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