FGE 0.00% 91.5¢ forge group limited

in @72.4 in late nov; sold @72.5 this week

  1. 101 Posts.
    I looked at FGE in early December, and figured that ANZ would have considered things this pretty carefully, and that since ANZ put in more cash than the market cap of the company, the shares were almost certainly undervalued (at 60 - 70c), therefore a gamble worth taking, and I impulse bought.

    After the peak at the end of Dec (when I was either cowardly or wise, possibly both, and sold half my holding @1.74), I held on with the other half through most of January, despite almost daily decreases in SP, on the vague notion that the company value should trend towards mid-year levels. I remained optimistic, especially as I was still comfortably in profit, and waited for the expected bounce.

    The third trading halt, and especially the decrease in SP from $1.00 to 75c over a handful of trading days, left me feeling that I really had no idea where the SP was going, so I sold out on Thur at 72.5. (If Murphy's law applies to this as strongly as it does to rainfall levels immediately after I fill my swimming pool, this could signal that a substantial upswing is imminent.)

    So (as a relative newby to ST investing) what, if anything, did I learn from this?
    First, if a stock is hugely volatile, then there may well be a reason for this, so it's a good idea to do some profit taking after a strong run EVEN IF YOU BELIEVE IT'S A LT HOLD. (Of course, this has been said many times before.)
    Second, that companies can surprise you with unexpected news, so diversity is a good idea.
    Third, that it's easier to be smart in the short term than the long term.

    While these seem like reasonable lessons, I may have to rethink them all if FGE is back at $1.50 next month, or at $53.50 at the end of the year (even though the movement of one isolated SP really doesn't affect their wisdom or otherwise).
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add FGE (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.