Hey Cha, I agree, it is safer to wait for the trend to reverse. Although when it does, NCM could jump to $30 at open or in minutes.
An extract from New York research and analysis group CPM in its latest Market Commentary reads:
"There is so much money piled up in cash and Treasuries, with its owners waiting to re-allocate these funds...when the turn comes it could be a rapid appreciation off of the floor for many commodities prices.
"If one waits for the first 5% or 10% of the recovery before in-vesting, one may well miss the first 30% of the upward revision in prices – when it comes."