Sang, valid points and I suggest you read the following post,...

Sang, valid points and I suggest you read the following post, which has the calcs there for you.

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1374382&msgid=7759367

Personally I would not use current basket prices, and suggest that prouduction prices were only 10% of sales because of the higher basket prices.

My valuation was excluding, HREEs, outliers in width and grade, and also only focused on the 'hot zone' of results, and 2009 prices. I priced it based on 3.44% x 15.144 mT (i.e. it is not 14mt of pure REE). In all likelihood it is going to be closer to 20MT at 3.5-4% when adding other grades and areas.

IF you double 2009 prices, and reduce the production costs given tanzanian labour does not cost what overpriced WA labour costs, then the value dynamics look even better.

Only a JORC compliant estimate will ever tell you the truth. But the numbers are their in the drill results and quarterly reports. You just need to crunch it out to get a feel for value.

Personally I think I was too conservative. and more than likely there is about $6-10B in the ground with REEs alone.

Add the phosphates and hopefully you start to get the picture. Even if we are hopelessly inefficient getting it out of the ground (which I doubt mgt will be), there must be 1-3B in pure profit in the ground at Ngualla. against a backdrop of 130M Market Cap. Still miles apart. There may be some dilution on the way, but to me the value proposition is still far too compelling (I was buying more on Friday).