Two weeks since spud, goes without saying we are in serious need of an announcement to update the market on drilling status.
Before you tell me to ring the company this is not about my personal requirements but market sentiment as a whole, and 23.5 cents says a lot.
Over the past 12 months we have been advised by brokers and posters alike that the price should be 40 / 60 / 80 cents because of this and that but the harsh reality is that it has struggled to break 30 cents. After guessing prices of 60+ cents pre-spud now posters tell me that the current price does not matter because when we hit oil the it will be between $1 and $8.50 (per the same brokers). Sorry to disappoint but the market works on investor psychology, and it is far less likely to increase to $2 on news from a base of 20 cents (*10 multiple) than it is from a base of 50 cents (*4 multiple).
No doubt posters will trash this theory also, however the drilling results will not include flow rates so if we are lucky enough to strike oil the share price can only be determined on guess work and market sentiment rather than real metrics. Given this, why will it be any different to the current position, with people telling me my shares are worth at least 80 cents so close to TD and yet I can only sell them for 23.5 on market?
I appreciate it may all be for nothing if it is a duster however I see a share price struggling when it should be building so close to a huge company milestone. If we want it to reach the heights suggested it needs significant awareness together with investor confidence, with new buyers pushing it to the next base price where it can launch again on positive news. To do this we need regular updates as to where the drill is at and when key milestones are likely to be reached, building interest in the drill and hopefully attracting new investors. When it all comes down to it finding oil is the ultimate prize, however we can’t be naïve to think that positive investor sentiment in the build-up will not increase the price when news does come.
Announcement of spud hit London two weeks ago exactly, is tonight the night?
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